Consensus PnL -$4.9K · win rate 50% (2–2, n=4) · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-4.9K
Record
2W / 2L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 4 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1804
Trades
3
Markets
9
Volume
$15.9K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 6¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $130 · now 11¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
2 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 53¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Chakamanle's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 50%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 0% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.