Research › Traders
What if I had copied this trader?
Two questions a copy trader asks, answered from the fills the site has. First: what following a given trader — buying when they buy, selling the same fraction when they sell, at a copier's costs on both legs, holding whatever is left to resolution — would have returned per $1, at their prices and, more honestly, an hour later; next to it, what $1 on every entry held to resolution would have returned, ignoring their sells. For a trader who leaves markets early the two differ a lot, and a style label says which one describes them. Second: whether a trader betting far above their own normal size tells you anything. Every figure comes with its n and a 95 % interval. Past results, not advice.
Copy a trader
Pick a dataset and a trader. The full history is every wallet that was ever in the site's tracked set as it stood at the time (the monthly leaderboard rebuilt day by day from the chain, plus the curated wallets: no one picked by today's leaderboard), with every trade each made from December 2022 to October 2026. The site export holds each tracked wallet's fills from the day it was tracked; the one-year set, when present, is today's leaderboard replayed over twelve months — those wallets were picked with hindsight, so their figures are the figures of known winners.
Full history, every trade, no hindsight
Traders with the most settled markets, with the return per $1 of following them (every buy and sell mirrored):
Dataset-wide figures
Before any one trader: what following every wallet returned, what holding every entry returned, how the per-wallet means spread out under both models, and how much the hour between a trader's fill and yours costs. A wallet whose interval lies above zero is not proof: with hundreds of wallets tested, a few pass by chance.
Full history, every trade, no hindsight
Every wallet that was ever in the site's tracked set as it stood at the time (Polymarket's monthly leaderboard rebuilt day by day from the chain, Aug 2025 to Oct 2026, plus the curated wallets: 27,345 wallets, none picked by today's leaderboard), with every fill each one made on the order book from November 2022 to October 25 2026, taken from the chain. A wallet's figures cover its whole history, before and after it was tracked, so the run that got it listed is in them. Positions received by transfer, split or conversion are not fills and are not counted.
Fills 2022-12-12 to 2026-10-25 · 27,345 wallets (27,303 with markets) · 43,898,934 markets followed: 42,713,342 settled · 39,513,066 entries held: 38,328,568 resolved, 1,184,498 open · 13,082,011 hedged markets apart, 4,454,874 exited markets apart in the held model · computed 2026-10-26 18:23 UTC
Copied, including their sells
At their prices, after costs
−6.3 %
95 % CI −6.4 % to −6.3 % · per $1 deployed on each of 42,713,342 settled markets · 56.8 % in profit
Followed 1 h later
−15.4 %
95 % CI −15.4 % to −15.3 % · 19,261,636 markets could be followed an hour late; 23,451,706 could not (every buy came too close to the end)
What waiting an hour costs
−8.8 %
95 % CI −8.9 % to −8.8 % · later minus their prices on the same 19,261,636 markets — the honest copy-trading number
Sold out before resolution in 10 % of the settled markets; 13,010,365 hedged markets apart (following both legs: −3.7 %).
Bought their entries and held, ignoring their sells
Copied at entry, after costs
−9.0 %
95 % CI −9.1 % to −9.0 % · $1 on each of 38,328,568 resolved entries · held side won 63.6 %
Copied 1 h later
−17.4 %
95 % CI −17.5 % to −17.4 % · 15,887,656 entries had a price 1–24 h later; 22,440,912 did not (most short markets had ended)
What waiting an hour costs
−5.1 %
95 % CI −5.1 % to −5.0 % · later minus entry on the same 15,887,656 entries
Markets the traders left before resolution (4,454,874) are not in these held figures: holding them would have returned +18.7 % a trade (+18.5 % to +18.9 %) on the 4,219,811 that resolved; held side won 68.4 %. The followed figures count them at the traders' own exits.
Per-wallet means (wallets with 30+ settled markets: 19,954 followed, 18,330 held)
| p10 | p25 | median | p75 | p90 | 95 % CI above zero | below zero | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Followed, at their prices | −21.6 % | −11.9 % | −5.0 % | +0.3 % | +9.5 % | 1235 of 19954 | 7836 of 19954 |
| Followed 1 h later | −36.5 % | −23.1 % | −11.4 % | −3.4 % | +2.5 % | 159 of 17773 | 10119 of 17773 |
| Held, copied at entry | −58.3 % | −25.8 % | −7.3 % | +0.3 % | +9.7 % | 1379 of 18330 | 8344 of 18330 |
| Held, copied 1 h later | −69.5 % | −38.0 % | −13.9 % | −1.6 % | +5.8 % | 516 of 15921 | 8521 of 15921 |
"Above zero" counts the wallets whose whole 95 % interval of the mean return lies above zero: with 19,954 wallets tested, about 499 would pass by chance alone.
Followed, by topic (the 12 with most settled markets)
| Settled | In profit | At their prices | 1 h later | Sold out early | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 21,365,241+123,004 open | 57.2 %57.2 % to 57.2 % | −7.3 %−7.3 % to −7.2 % | −21.2 %−21.4 % to −21.1 %1,916,539 followed · −11.4 % vs their prices | 5 %hold under 1 h |
| Soccer | 5,865,069+358,266 open | 55.5 %55.5 % to 55.6 % | −5.8 %−5.9 % to −5.7 % | −15.2 %−15.3 % to −15.1 %4,660,576 followed · −9.7 % vs their prices | 12 %hold ≈ 8 h |
| Esports | 2,628,171+24,511 open | 54.6 %54.6 % to 54.7 % | −6.6 %−6.8 % to −6.5 % | −23.6 %−23.7 % to −23.4 %2,312,259 followed · −17.0 % vs their prices | 16 %hold ≈ 4 h |
| Weather | 2,447,379+191,731 open | 63.2 %63.1 % to 63.3 % | −5.7 %−5.9 % to −5.6 % | −9.9 %−10.0 % to −9.8 %2,339,607 followed · −3.9 % vs their prices | 12 %hold ≈ 34 h |
| Tennis | 1,712,404+10,992 open | 57.2 %57.2 % to 57.3 % | +1.7 %+1.4 % to +1.9 % | −14.7 %−14.9 % to −14.5 %1,268,829 followed · −14.2 % vs their prices | 12 %hold ≈ 8 h |
| Other | 1,438,410+36,075 open | 70.3 %70.2 % to 70.4 % | −1.9 %−2.1 % to −1.7 % | −14.7 %−15.1 % to −14.4 %425,396 followed · −2.9 % vs their prices | 6 %hold ≈ 8 h |
| NBA | 1,156,398+19,814 open | 51.3 %51.2 % to 51.4 % | −5.5 %−5.7 % to −5.3 % | −12.5 %−12.7 % to −12.3 %1,055,671 followed · −7.0 % vs their prices | 15 %hold ≈ 5 d |
| MLB | 1,070,463+9,909 open | 53.9 %53.8 % to 54.0 % | −3.3 %−3.5 % to −3.0 % | −11.7 %−12.0 % to −11.5 %859,116 followed · −7.2 % vs their prices | 8 %hold ≈ 8 h |
| Mentions | 656,505+7,421 open | 52.0 %51.8 % to 52.1 % | −10.1 %−10.4 % to −9.8 % | −15.6 %−15.9 % to −15.3 %617,884 followed · −5.5 % vs their prices | 22 %hold ≈ 10 d |
| Elections | 486,964+172,263 open | 47.9 %47.8 % to 48.1 % | −11.5 %−11.8 % to −11.3 % | −12.4 %−12.7 % to −12.1 %417,111 followed · −1.2 % vs their prices | 37 %hold ≈ 20 d |
| Geopolitics | 471,088+27,944 open | 47.5 %47.3 % to 47.6 % | −7.3 %−7.6 % to −7.0 % | −9.6 %−9.9 % to −9.3 %450,683 followed · −2.3 % vs their prices | 45 %hold ≈ 20 d |
| Other Sports | 416,408+7,901 open | 56.1 %55.9 % to 56.2 % | −6.5 %−6.8 % to −6.1 % | −14.6 %−15.0 % to −14.2 %350,883 followed · −7.6 % vs their prices | 11 %hold ≈ 17 h |
Held, by entry price
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 30¢ | 6,721,338+221,607 open | 8.4 %8.3 % to 8.4 % | −52.3 %−52.4 % to −52.1 % | −61.7 %−61.9 % to −61.4 %3,024,676 priced · −13.2 % vs entry on these |
| 30–50¢ | 6,506,153+142,340 open | 38.9 %38.8 % to 38.9 % | −13.2 %−13.3 % to −13.1 % | −22.9 %−23.1 % to −22.8 %3,093,042 priced · −8.2 % vs entry on these |
| 50–70¢ | 7,733,570+167,287 open | 63.3 %63.3 % to 63.3 % | +3.4 %+3.4 % to +3.5 % | −10.2 %−10.3 % to −10.1 %3,442,214 priced · −6.2 % vs entry on these |
| 70¢ and up | 17,367,507+653,264 open | 94.3 %94.3 % to 94.3 % | +3.7 %+3.7 % to +3.8 % | +2.4 %+2.4 % to +2.5 %6,327,724 priced · +0.9 % vs entry on these |
Held, by topic (the 12 with most resolved entries)
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 20,087,533+122,641 open | 65.4 %65.4 % to 65.4 % | −7.4 %−7.5 % to −7.4 % | −25.0 %−25.1 % to −24.8 %1,522,362 priced · −9.6 % vs entry on these |
| Soccer | 5,180,844+358,150 open | 59.0 %59.0 % to 59.1 % | −10.2 %−10.3 % to −10.1 % | −16.4 %−16.5 % to −16.2 %4,008,860 priced · −6.1 % vs entry on these |
| Esports | 2,219,417+24,496 open | 53.5 %53.5 % to 53.6 % | −16.7 %−16.9 % to −16.6 % | −31.4 %−31.5 % to −31.2 %1,918,630 priced · −13.8 % vs entry on these |
| Weather | 2,140,591+191,394 open | 74.8 %74.7 % to 74.8 % | −9.7 %−9.9 % to −9.6 % | −9.7 %−9.8 % to −9.5 %2,047,995 priced · +0.4 % vs entry on these |
| Tennis | 1,510,218+10,992 open | 60.3 %60.2 % to 60.4 % | −8.4 %−8.6 % to −8.2 % | −16.0 %−16.3 % to −15.8 %1,085,986 priced · −6.6 % vs entry on these |
| Other | 1,350,878+36,081 open | 73.3 %73.2 % to 73.4 % | −2.8 %−3.0 % to −2.7 % | −16.0 %−16.4 % to −15.6 %349,057 priced · +0.7 % vs entry on these |
| MLB | 986,635+9,912 open | 55.7 %55.6 % to 55.8 % | −7.1 %−7.3 % to −6.9 % | −11.5 %−11.8 % to −11.2 %773,771 priced · −4.3 % vs entry on these |
| NBA | 983,310+19,804 open | 53.6 %53.5 % to 53.7 % | −11.7 %−11.9 % to −11.5 % | −16.0 %−16.3 % to −15.7 %883,875 priced · −4.0 % vs entry on these |
| Mentions | 509,257+7,410 open | 63.8 %63.7 % to 64.0 % | −15.6 %−15.9 % to −15.2 % | −15.1 %−15.5 % to −14.6 %468,693 priced · +0.8 % vs entry on these |
| Other Sports | 372,107+7,899 open | 59.1 %58.9 % to 59.2 % | −11.7 %−12.1 % to −11.3 % | −16.7 %−17.2 % to −16.3 %304,343 priced · −3.9 % vs entry on these |
| College Basketball | 361,786+234 open | 56.8 %56.6 % to 57.0 % | −11.6 %−12.0 % to −11.3 % | −17.0 %−17.5 % to −16.4 %306,333 priced · −5.4 % vs entry on these |
| NHL | 356,530+8,668 open | 53.0 %52.8 % to 53.2 % | −10.5 %−10.8 % to −10.1 % | −14.4 %−14.8 % to −14.0 %326,071 priced · −3.9 % vs entry on these |
Site export (tracked wallets, from the day each was tracked)
The wallets are the traders the site tracked, each from the day it was added (curated wallets since March 2026, the leaderboard set since October 2 2026). Short histories: most figures have few resolved entries.
Fills 2022-12-12 to 2026-10-22 · 2,427 wallets (2,293 with markets) · 2,271,687 markets followed: 2,124,579 settled · 2,132,120 entries held: 1,986,292 resolved, 145,828 open · 444,606 hedged markets apart, 160,639 exited markets apart in the held model · computed 2026-10-26 15:06 UTC
Copied, including their sells
At their prices, after costs
−4.2 %
95 % CI −4.4 % to −4.0 % · per $1 deployed on each of 2,124,579 settled markets · 56.6 % in profit
Followed 1 h later
−9.8 %
95 % CI −10.0 % to −9.6 % · 1,105,580 markets could be followed an hour late; 1,018,999 could not (every buy came too close to the end)
What waiting an hour costs
−6.3 %
95 % CI −6.6 % to −6.1 % · later minus their prices on the same 1,105,580 markets — the honest copy-trading number
Sold out before resolution in 6 % of the settled markets; 446,733 hedged markets apart (following both legs: −5.3 %).
Bought their entries and held, ignoring their sells
Copied at entry, after costs
−6.6 %
95 % CI −6.7 % to −6.4 % · $1 on each of 1,986,292 resolved entries · held side won 62.4 %
Copied 1 h later
−6.0 %
95 % CI −6.3 % to −5.7 % · 938,987 entries had a price 1–24 h later; 1,047,305 did not (most short markets had ended)
What waiting an hour costs
+0.2 %
95 % CI +0.0 % to +0.4 % · later minus entry on the same 938,987 entries
Markets the traders left before resolution (160,639) are not in these held figures: holding them would have returned +10.8 % a trade (+9.6 % to +12.0 %) on the 143,904 that resolved; held side won 61.9 %. The followed figures count them at the traders' own exits.
Per-wallet means (wallets with 30+ settled markets: 1,657 followed, 1,580 held)
| p10 | p25 | median | p75 | p90 | 95 % CI above zero | below zero | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Followed, at their prices | −18.3 % | −10.0 % | −3.3 % | +2.3 % | +11.5 % | 138 of 1657 | 418 of 1657 |
| Followed 1 h later | −30.3 % | −19.1 % | −9.2 % | −1.7 % | +7.2 % | 39 of 1482 | 670 of 1482 |
| Held, copied at entry | −28.3 % | −13.8 % | −4.9 % | +1.0 % | +9.4 % | 95 of 1580 | 480 of 1580 |
| Held, copied 1 h later | −36.4 % | −19.9 % | −7.0 % | +1.9 % | +13.0 % | 75 of 1355 | 461 of 1355 |
"Above zero" counts the wallets whose whole 95 % interval of the mean return lies above zero: with 1,657 wallets tested, about 41 would pass by chance alone.
Followed, by topic (the 12 with most settled markets)
| Settled | In profit | At their prices | 1 h later | Sold out early | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 584,979+8,116 open | 60.4 %60.3 % to 60.6 % | −4.2 %−4.5 % to −3.9 % | −2.6 %−3.4 % to −1.8 %66,662 followed · +4.3 % vs their prices | 2 %hold under 1 h |
| Soccer | 490,416+22,007 open | 55.3 %55.2 % to 55.5 % | −6.2 %−6.5 % to −5.8 % | −8.3 %−8.7 % to −7.8 %298,974 followed · −4.1 % vs their prices | 6 %hold ≈ 17 h |
| Tennis | 129,118+717 open | 54.5 %54.2 % to 54.8 % | +6.4 %+5.1 % to +7.7 % | −9.7 %−10.5 % to −8.9 %73,878 followed · −17.9 % vs their prices | 5 %hold ≈ 8 h |
| Esports | 128,651+1,775 open | 54.5 %54.2 % to 54.8 % | −1.9 %−2.6 % to −1.1 % | −16.1 %−16.8 % to −15.4 %68,882 followed · −14.1 % vs their prices | 6 %hold ≈ 8 h |
| Weather | 88,978+10,930 open | 69.4 %69.1 % to 69.7 % | −5.1 %−5.9 % to −4.3 % | −7.3 %−8.2 % to −6.5 %68,760 followed · −3.2 % vs their prices | 6 %hold ≈ 34 h |
| Geopolitics | 78,673+9,049 open | 54.3 %54.0 % to 54.7 % | −4.7 %−5.5 % to −3.8 % | −8.5 %−9.2 % to −7.7 %73,392 followed · −4.4 % vs their prices | 18 %hold ≈ 20 d |
| NBA | 75,913+2,530 open | 50.4 %50.0 % to 50.7 % | −3.1 %−3.8 % to −2.3 % | −8.2 %−9.1 % to −7.3 %57,347 followed · −4.4 % vs their prices | 8 %hold ≈ 5 d |
| Mentions | 63,940+1,711 open | 53.9 %53.5 % to 54.2 % | −11.5 %−12.5 % to −10.5 % | −15.5 %−16.5 % to −14.5 %51,325 followed · −6.0 % vs their prices | 11 %hold ≈ 10 d |
| Elections | 54,090+40,738 open | 53.8 %53.4 % to 54.2 % | −12.6 %−13.6 % to −11.7 % | −13.0 %−14.1 % to −11.9 %41,783 followed · −3.6 % vs their prices | 16 %hold ≈ 20 d |
| Finance | 50,257+7,119 open | 53.8 %53.4 % to 54.2 % | −10.8 %−12.0 % to −9.7 % | −15.6 %−16.8 % to −14.3 %32,214 followed · −6.5 % vs their prices | 15 %hold ≈ 10 d |
| Entertainment | 41,857+4,395 open | 57.7 %57.3 % to 58.2 % | −15.2 %−16.3 % to −14.1 % | −17.6 %−18.9 % to −16.4 %31,866 followed · −3.7 % vs their prices | 9 %hold ≈ 10 d |
| NFL | 40,763+4,723 open | 52.6 %52.1 % to 53.1 % | +35.2 %+31.5 % to +38.8 % | −6.6 %−8.2 % to −4.9 %28,157 followed · −42.9 % vs their prices | 10 %hold ≈ 17 h |
Held, by entry price
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 30¢ | 383,183+32,061 open | 10.0 %9.9 % to 10.1 % | −40.7 %−41.5 % to −39.9 % | −47.3 %−48.3 % to −46.2 %176,571 priced · −13.3 % vs entry on these |
| 30–50¢ | 362,464+13,867 open | 40.9 %40.8 % to 41.1 % | −7.5 %−7.9 % to −7.2 % | −9.3 %−10.0 % to −8.7 %190,725 priced · −3.5 % vs entry on these |
| 50–70¢ | 392,135+17,141 open | 64.5 %64.3 % to 64.7 % | +5.0 %+4.8 % to +5.3 % | +2.3 %+1.8 % to +2.8 %201,830 priced · +1.1 % vs entry on these |
| 70¢ and up | 848,510+82,759 open | 94.2 %94.1 % to 94.2 % | +3.9 %+3.8 % to +4.0 % | +11.0 %+10.7 % to +11.2 %369,861 priced · +8.2 % vs entry on these |
Held, by topic (the 12 with most resolved entries)
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 579,141+8,026 open | 67.1 %66.9 % to 67.2 % | −3.2 %−3.5 % to −2.9 % | +11.2 %+10.1 % to +12.3 %56,126 priced · +16.1 % vs entry on these |
| Soccer | 462,703+21,940 open | 59.8 %59.7 % to 60.0 % | −6.6 %−6.9 % to −6.2 % | −4.7 %−5.3 % to −4.2 %263,834 priced · −0.5 % vs entry on these |
| Tennis | 123,206+718 open | 58.1 %57.8 % to 58.4 % | −5.3 %−6.0 % to −4.7 % | −4.5 %−5.4 % to −3.6 %66,924 priced · −4.3 % vs entry on these |
| Esports | 120,691+1,770 open | 55.7 %55.4 % to 56.0 % | −6.2 %−6.8 % to −5.5 % | −16.0 %−16.9 % to −15.2 %61,287 priced · −10.5 % vs entry on these |
| Weather | 82,828+10,894 open | 72.5 %72.2 % to 72.8 % | −8.7 %−9.5 % to −7.8 % | −8.0 %−9.0 % to −7.0 %62,587 priced · −0.2 % vs entry on these |
| NBA | 70,693+2,517 open | 55.0 %54.7 % to 55.4 % | −3.7 %−4.5 % to −2.8 % | −7.5 %−8.6 % to −6.4 %50,848 priced · −3.2 % vs entry on these |
| Geopolitics | 61,042+8,824 open | 65.4 %65.1 % to 65.8 % | −9.6 %−10.7 % to −8.5 % | −4.4 %−5.7 % to −3.1 %55,560 priced · +4.3 % vs entry on these |
| Mentions | 55,420+1,707 open | 63.1 %62.7 % to 63.5 % | −13.8 %−15.0 % to −12.6 % | −6.9 %−9.0 % to −4.9 %41,427 priced · +4.4 % vs entry on these |
| Elections | 43,925+40,292 open | 64.6 %64.1 % to 65.0 % | −15.2 %−16.4 % to −14.0 % | −8.2 %−9.9 % to −6.5 %30,537 priced · +3.4 % vs entry on these |
| Finance | 41,831+7,013 open | 63.7 %63.2 % to 64.2 % | −14.9 %−16.2 % to −13.5 % | −14.1 %−15.9 % to −12.2 %22,806 priced · −0.6 % vs entry on these |
| MLB | 38,051+822 open | 53.3 %52.8 % to 53.8 % | −5.9 %−7.0 % to −4.7 % | −3.2 %−4.9 % to −1.5 %23,106 priced · −1.1 % vs entry on these |
| College Basketball | 37,899+64 open | 59.6 %59.1 % to 60.1 % | −2.4 %−3.7 % to −1.2 % | −3.6 %−5.4 % to −1.8 %22,042 priced · −0.9 % vs entry on these |
One year of today's top traders (picked with hindsight)picked with hindsight
The wallets are today's Polymarket leaderboard replayed over the past twelve months: they are the traders who turned out to win. Figures on this set say what copying a winner would have paid, not what copying a trader picked today will pay.
Fills 2025-10-24 to 2026-10-23 · 1,937 wallets (1,935 with markets) · 2,969,275 markets followed: 2,851,905 settled · 2,653,054 entries held: 2,535,700 resolved, 117,354 open · 226,867 hedged markets apart, 315,898 exited markets apart in the held model · computed 2026-10-26 14:54 UTC
Copied, including their sells
At their prices, after costs
+3.5 %
95 % CI +3.3 % to +3.7 % · per $1 deployed on each of 2,851,905 settled markets · 63.8 % in profit
Followed 1 h later
−11.0 %
95 % CI −11.1 % to −10.8 % · 1,453,448 markets could be followed an hour late; 1,398,457 could not (every buy came too close to the end)
What waiting an hour costs
−12.4 %
95 % CI −12.6 % to −12.2 % · later minus their prices on the same 1,453,448 markets — the honest copy-trading number
Sold out before resolution in 11 % of the settled markets; 219,726 hedged markets apart (following both legs: −4.9 %).
Bought their entries and held, ignoring their sells
Copied at entry, after costs
−3.7 %
95 % CI −3.9 % to −3.6 % · $1 on each of 2,535,700 resolved entries · held side won 67.0 %
Copied 1 h later
−10.4 %
95 % CI −10.6 % to −10.2 % · 1,205,128 entries had a price 1–24 h later; 1,330,572 did not (most short markets had ended)
What waiting an hour costs
−5.1 %
95 % CI −5.3 % to −4.9 % · later minus entry on the same 1,205,128 entries
Markets the traders left before resolution (315,898) are not in these held figures: holding them would have returned +36.6 % a trade (+35.5 % to +37.7 %) on the 295,610 that resolved; held side won 72.3 %. The followed figures count them at the traders' own exits.
Per-wallet means (wallets with 30+ settled markets: 1,659 followed, 1,594 held)
| p10 | p25 | median | p75 | p90 | 95 % CI above zero | below zero | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Followed, at their prices | −12.6 % | −6.9 % | −1.8 % | +3.5 % | +17.0 % | 205 of 1659 | 434 of 1659 |
| Followed 1 h later | −29.7 % | −17.8 % | −9.0 % | −2.1 % | +3.8 % | 16 of 1560 | 824 of 1560 |
| Held, copied at entry | −34.3 % | −13.9 % | −3.3 % | +2.0 % | +12.3 % | 163 of 1594 | 567 of 1594 |
| Held, copied 1 h later | −44.6 % | −23.4 % | −7.6 % | +0.4 % | +10.4 % | 77 of 1442 | 630 of 1442 |
"Above zero" counts the wallets whose whole 95 % interval of the mean return lies above zero: with 1,659 wallets tested, about 41 would pass by chance alone.
Followed, by topic (the 12 with most settled markets)
| Settled | In profit | At their prices | 1 h later | Sold out early | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soccer | 581,925+10,344 open | 62.1 %62.0 % to 62.3 % | −0.7 %−1.0 % to −0.4 % | −11.9 %−12.3 % to −11.5 %281,064 followed · −10.3 % vs their prices | 13 %hold ≈ 4 h |
| Crypto | 532,050+6,759 open | 62.6 %62.5 % to 62.7 % | −2.1 %−2.4 % to −1.8 % | −8.2 %−9.1 % to −7.4 %49,419 followed · −3.9 % vs their prices | 4 %hold under 1 h |
| Esports | 382,118+4,418 open | 58.8 %58.7 % to 59.0 % | −1.3 %−1.6 % to −0.9 % | −22.0 %−22.4 % to −21.7 %253,650 followed · −20.7 % vs their prices | 14 %hold ≈ 4 h |
| Weather | 289,434+4,267 open | 80.0 %79.8 % to 80.1 % | −2.2 %−2.5 % to −1.9 % | −5.4 %−5.8 % to −5.1 %209,037 followed · −3.1 % vs their prices | 7 %hold ≈ 34 h |
| Tennis | 254,576+1,346 open | 64.6 %64.5 % to 64.8 % | +37.2 %+35.7 % to +38.7 % | −7.0 %−8.0 % to −6.1 %133,382 followed · −35.6 % vs their prices | 12 %hold ≈ 4 h |
| MLB | 129,524+1,121 open | 58.1 %57.8 % to 58.4 % | +11.1 %+9.7 % to +12.6 % | −8.4 %−9.2 % to −7.5 %74,038 followed · −8.5 % vs their prices | 4 %hold ≈ 4 h |
| NBA | 85,844+2,849 open | 54.2 %53.9 % to 54.5 % | −3.3 %−4.0 % to −2.6 % | −8.7 %−9.7 % to −7.8 %58,893 followed · −4.9 % vs their prices | 7 %hold ≈ 5 d |
| Geopolitics | 78,005+7,158 open | 59.3 %58.9 % to 59.6 % | −2.7 %−3.4 % to −2.0 % | −7.2 %−7.8 % to −6.5 %68,997 followed · −4.3 % vs their prices | 36 %hold ≈ 20 d |
| Mentions | 64,404+1,279 open | 67.6 %67.2 % to 68.0 % | −4.3 %−5.2 % to −3.5 % | −12.0 %−13.1 % to −11.0 %45,123 followed · −6.7 % vs their prices | 14 %hold ≈ 5 d |
| Elections | 54,449+35,723 open | 67.3 %66.9 % to 67.7 % | −2.9 %−3.7 % to −2.0 % | −6.8 %−7.9 % to −5.7 %36,095 followed · −3.8 % vs their prices | 20 %hold ≈ 20 d |
| Finance | 54,301+5,881 open | 70.8 %70.4 % to 71.1 % | −1.5 %−2.4 % to −0.6 % | −9.9 %−11.1 % to −8.7 %28,644 followed · −7.7 % vs their prices | 19 %hold ≈ 5 d |
| Other Sports | 48,760+882 open | 62.4 %62.0 % to 62.8 % | −1.0 %−2.1 % to +0.1 % | −10.7 %−11.9 % to −9.5 %30,185 followed · −9.1 % vs their prices | 6 %hold ≈ 8 h |
Held, by entry price
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 30¢ | 318,700+16,449 open | 12.7 %12.6 % to 12.8 % | −26.9 %−27.9 % to −25.9 % | −46.5 %−47.5 % to −45.5 %157,736 priced · −19.9 % vs entry on these |
| 30–50¢ | 510,425+10,461 open | 41.8 %41.7 % to 41.9 % | −6.7 %−7.0 % to −6.4 % | −16.6 %−17.1 % to −16.1 %273,090 priced · −9.9 % vs entry on these |
| 50–70¢ | 519,749+14,013 open | 61.4 %61.2 % to 61.5 % | +0.8 %+0.6 % to +1.0 % | −7.5 %−7.9 % to −7.2 %308,991 priced · −5.1 % vs entry on these |
| 70¢ and up | 1,186,826+76,431 open | 94.7 %94.7 % to 94.7 % | +1.8 %+1.8 % to +1.9 % | +3.6 %+3.3 % to +3.8 %465,311 priced · +2.8 % vs entry on these |
Held, by topic (the 12 with most resolved entries)
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 509,516+6,770 open | 66.3 %66.2 % to 66.4 % | −2.7 %−3.0 % to −2.4 % | −0.8 %−2.1 % to +0.5 %36,933 priced · +5.9 % vs entry on these |
| Soccer | 504,404+10,333 open | 65.0 %64.9 % to 65.2 % | −3.6 %−3.9 % to −3.2 % | −11.8 %−12.3 % to −11.4 %234,025 priced · −7.6 % vs entry on these |
| Esports | 330,206+4,418 open | 58.7 %58.5 % to 58.9 % | −7.5 %−7.9 % to −7.2 % | −25.7 %−26.1 % to −25.2 %212,964 priced · −17.2 % vs entry on these |
| Weather | 268,794+4,252 open | 80.9 %80.7 % to 81.0 % | −6.0 %−6.3 % to −5.8 % | −7.8 %−8.1 % to −7.4 %191,156 priced · −0.7 % vs entry on these |
| Tennis | 224,139+1,346 open | 68.1 %67.9 % to 68.3 % | +2.9 %+2.2 % to +3.7 % | −4.5 %−5.6 % to −3.4 %112,803 priced · −4.6 % vs entry on these |
| MLB | 124,023+1,121 open | 59.2 %59.0 % to 59.5 % | −2.3 %−2.8 % to −1.7 % | −7.2 %−8.1 % to −6.3 %68,944 priced · −4.1 % vs entry on these |
| NBA | 79,584+2,849 open | 55.8 %55.5 % to 56.2 % | −4.6 %−5.4 % to −3.8 % | −8.0 %−9.2 % to −6.9 %53,062 priced · −2.6 % vs entry on these |
| Mentions | 55,031+1,281 open | 75.4 %75.1 % to 75.8 % | −5.7 %−6.6 % to −4.8 % | −2.9 %−4.8 % to −1.0 %34,894 priced · +4.3 % vs entry on these |
| Geopolitics | 49,485+7,164 open | 73.1 %72.7 % to 73.5 % | −7.1 %−8.1 % to −6.2 % | −1.3 %−2.6 % to +0.0 %42,349 priced · +5.8 % vs entry on these |
| Other Sports | 45,590+882 open | 64.8 %64.4 % to 65.3 % | −3.4 %−4.5 % to −2.3 % | −9.6 %−11.1 % to −8.2 %26,815 priced · −5.3 % vs entry on these |
| Finance | 43,901+5,884 open | 79.3 %78.9 % to 79.7 % | −4.0 %−5.0 % to −3.0 % | −4.5 %−6.3 % to −2.7 %18,989 priced · +0.5 % vs entry on these |
| Elections | 43,198+35,701 open | 76.6 %76.2 % to 77.0 % | −3.4 %−4.4 % to −2.3 % | −0.2 %−2.1 % to +1.6 %24,333 priced · +3.2 % vs entry on these |
Does conviction predict outcomes?
A conviction bet is an entry of at least 3× the trader's own 75th-percentile position cost over the previous 90 days (at least 10 earlier positions; at least $1,000). The baseline is point in time: only earlier entries feed it. The question is whether those bets won more often, and returned more after costs, than the same traders' normal-size entries at the same prices.
Full history, every trade, no hindsight
39,257,531 resolved entries had a baseline (10+ earlier positions in the previous 90 days); 255,535 did not. Held model: entries held to resolution.
Conviction bets: held side won 80.9 % of 1,145,356 and returned −0.6 % a trade after costs (−0.7 % to −0.5 %); normal-size entries won 63.1 % of 36,933,258 and returned −9.3 % (−9.3 % to −9.2 %). Conviction bets sit at higher prices on average (78¢ vs 61¢), so compare within a band before reading anything into the hit rates.
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction (≥ 3× own p75, ≥ $1,000) | 1,145,356+37,228 open | 80.9 %80.8 % to 80.9 % | −0.6 %−0.7 % to −0.5 % | +4.4 %+4.1 % to +4.6 %811,801 priced · +5.7 % vs entry on these |
| Normal size | 36,933,258+1,141,689 open | 63.1 %63.1 % to 63.1 % | −9.3 %−9.3 % to −9.2 % | −18.7 %−18.7 % to −18.6 %14,872,127 priced · −5.7 % vs entry on these |
| No baseline (under 10 earlier positions in 90 d) | 249,954+5,581 open | 56.2 %56.0 % to 56.4 % | −9.8 %−10.3 % to −9.3 % | −13.6 %−14.2 % to −13.0 %203,728 priced · −1.4 % vs entry on these |
By entry price
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction · under 30¢ | 34,239+1,642 open | 13.3 %12.9 % to 13.6 % | −41.8 %−43.5 % to −40.1 % | −36.6 %−39.4 % to −33.8 %31,513 priced · +5.1 % vs entry on these |
| Conviction · 30–50¢ | 125,446+3,625 open | 40.2 %40.0 % to 40.5 % | −10.9 %−11.5 % to −10.3 % | −7.7 %−8.7 % to −6.7 %111,552 priced · +2.6 % vs entry on these |
| Conviction · 50–70¢ | 208,009+5,909 open | 62.2 %62.0 % to 62.5 % | +0.7 %+0.4 % to +1.1 % | +3.6 %+2.9 % to +4.2 %178,435 priced · +3.8 % vs entry on these |
| Conviction · 70¢ and up | 777,662+26,052 open | 95.2 %95.2 % to 95.3 % | +2.5 %+2.5 % to +2.6 % | +10.0 %+9.8 % to +10.3 %490,301 priced · +7.2 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · under 30¢ | 6,635,579+218,401 open | 8.3 %8.3 % to 8.3 % | −52.4 %−52.6 % to −52.3 % | −62.1 %−62.4 % to −61.9 %2,949,820 priced · −13.5 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · 30–50¢ | 6,335,951+137,966 open | 38.9 %38.8 % to 38.9 % | −13.3 %−13.3 % to −13.2 % | −23.6 %−23.8 % to −23.4 %2,943,726 priced · −8.7 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · 50–70¢ | 7,455,799+160,545 open | 63.4 %63.4 % to 63.4 % | +3.5 %+3.5 % to +3.6 % | −11.1 %−11.2 % to −10.9 %3,210,826 priced · −6.8 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · 70¢ and up | 16,505,929+624,777 open | 94.2 %94.2 % to 94.3 % | +3.8 %+3.8 % to +3.8 % | +1.8 %+1.8 % to +1.9 %5,767,755 priced · +0.4 % vs entry on these |
Site export (tracked wallets, from the day each was tracked)
2,108,734 resolved entries had a baseline (10+ earlier positions in the previous 90 days); 23,386 did not. Held model: entries held to resolution.
Conviction bets: held side won 79.0 % of 119,805 and returned +2.0 % a trade after costs (+1.7 % to +2.4 %); normal-size entries won 61.4 % of 1,844,689 and returned −7.2 % (−7.3 % to −7.0 %). Conviction bets sit at higher prices on average (75¢ vs 59¢), so compare within a band before reading anything into the hit rates.
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction (≥ 3× own p75, ≥ $1,000) | 119,805+5,731 open | 79.0 %78.7 % to 79.2 % | +2.0 %+1.7 % to +2.4 % | +12.2 %+11.3 % to +13.0 %90,066 priced · +9.9 % vs entry on these |
| Normal size | 1,844,689+138,509 open | 61.4 %61.3 % to 61.4 % | −7.2 %−7.3 % to −7.0 % | −7.9 %−8.2 % to −7.6 %834,052 priced · −0.8 % vs entry on these |
| No baseline (under 10 earlier positions in 90 d) | 21,798+1,588 open | 57.6 %56.9 % to 58.2 % | −4.8 %−6.8 % to −2.7 % | −6.8 %−9.1 % to −4.4 %14,869 priced · −1.5 % vs entry on these |
By entry price
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction · under 30¢ | 3,543+294 open | 16.8 %15.6 % to 18.1 % | −27.5 %−33.9 % to −21.2 % | −19.2 %−30.2 % to −8.2 %3,112 priced · +6.1 % vs entry on these |
| Conviction · 30–50¢ | 17,571+488 open | 43.5 %42.8 % to 44.2 % | −4.4 %−6.1 % to −2.8 % | −0.6 %−3.1 % to +1.9 %15,114 priced · +3.3 % vs entry on these |
| Conviction · 50–70¢ | 25,964+958 open | 64.7 %64.1 % to 65.3 % | +4.7 %+3.8 % to +5.7 % | +11.2 %+9.5 % to +13.0 %21,712 priced · +6.7 % vs entry on these |
| Conviction · 70¢ and up | 72,727+3,991 open | 95.6 %95.4 % to 95.7 % | +4.1 %+3.9 % to +4.3 % | +18.4 %+17.4 % to +19.3 %50,128 priced · +13.6 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · under 30¢ | 375,254+31,329 open | 9.9 %9.8 % to 10.0 % | −41.1 %−41.8 % to −40.3 % | −48.0 %−49.1 % to −46.9 %170,429 priced · −13.7 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · 30–50¢ | 340,147+13,191 open | 40.8 %40.6 % to 41.0 % | −7.7 %−8.1 % to −7.3 % | −10.1 %−10.7 % to −9.4 %172,420 priced · −4.1 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · 50–70¢ | 360,932+15,947 open | 64.5 %64.4 % to 64.7 % | +5.1 %+4.9 % to +5.4 % | +1.3 %+0.8 % to +1.8 %176,511 priced · +0.4 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · 70¢ and up | 768,356+78,042 open | 94.0 %94.0 % to 94.1 % | +3.9 %+3.8 % to +4.0 % | +9.8 %+9.5 % to +10.0 %314,692 priced · +7.3 % vs entry on these |
One year of today's top traders (picked with hindsight)picked with hindsight
2,637,060 resolved entries had a baseline (10+ earlier positions in the previous 90 days); 15,994 did not. Held model: entries held to resolution.
Conviction bets: held side won 78.9 % of 127,847 and returned +0.6 % a trade after costs (+0.2 % to +0.9 %); normal-size entries won 66.4 % of 2,392,642 and returned −3.9 % (−4.1 % to −3.8 %). Conviction bets sit at higher prices on average (76¢ vs 65¢), so compare within a band before reading anything into the hit rates.
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction (≥ 3× own p75, ≥ $1,000) | 127,847+6,123 open | 78.9 %78.7 % to 79.2 % | +0.6 %+0.2 % to +0.9 % | +6.3 %+5.4 % to +7.2 %87,060 priced · +6.2 % vs entry on these |
| Normal size | 2,392,642+110,448 open | 66.4 %66.3 % to 66.4 % | −3.9 %−4.1 % to −3.8 % | −11.7 %−11.9 % to −11.5 %1,107,665 priced · −6.0 % vs entry on these |
| No baseline (under 10 earlier positions in 90 d) | 15,211+783 open | 61.2 %60.4 % to 61.9 % | −3.0 %−5.4 % to −0.6 % | −9.0 %−11.4 % to −6.6 %10,403 priced · −3.4 % vs entry on these |
By entry price
| Resolved | Held side won | Copied at entry | Copied 1 h later | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction · under 30¢ | 3,547+355 open | 17.1 %15.9 % to 18.4 % | −25.6 %−31.4 % to −19.8 % | −21.5 %−31.3 % to −11.7 %3,004 priced · +4.5 % vs entry on these |
| Conviction · 30–50¢ | 17,862+574 open | 43.7 %43.0 % to 44.4 % | −3.5 %−5.1 % to −1.8 % | −3.1 %−5.8 % to −0.4 %14,994 priced · −0.1 % vs entry on these |
| Conviction · 50–70¢ | 27,850+1,056 open | 62.5 %61.9 % to 63.0 % | +1.8 %+0.9 % to +2.7 % | +2.7 %+0.9 % to +4.5 %23,257 priced · +2.2 % vs entry on these |
| Conviction · 70¢ and up | 78,588+4,138 open | 95.4 %95.2 % to 95.5 % | +2.2 %+2.0 % to +2.4 % | +13.1 %+12.1 % to +14.1 %45,805 priced · +10.5 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · under 30¢ | 312,653+15,900 open | 12.6 %12.5 % to 12.7 % | −27.1 %−28.1 % to −26.1 % | −47.0 %−48.0 % to −45.9 %153,056 priced · −20.4 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · 30–50¢ | 489,451+9,790 open | 41.7 %41.6 % to 41.9 % | −6.8 %−7.1 % to −6.5 % | −17.4 %−17.9 % to −16.9 %255,794 priced · −10.5 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · 50–70¢ | 488,273+12,816 open | 61.3 %61.2 % to 61.5 % | +0.8 %+0.5 % to +1.0 % | −8.4 %−8.7 % to −8.0 %283,025 priced · −5.7 % vs entry on these |
| Normal · 70¢ and up | 1,102,265+71,942 open | 94.7 %94.6 % to 94.7 % | +1.8 %+1.8 % to +1.9 % | +2.5 %+2.2 % to +2.8 %415,790 priced · +1.9 % vs entry on these |
Conviction bets right now
The same rule applied live: tracked traders who opened a new position in the last 7 days at 3× their own usual size or more. A market card shows a chip when such bets land on it. Whether that means anything is the table above, not the size.
60 bets in the last 7 days by 32 traders · 1,906 tracked wallets have a baseline (10+ positions in 90 d), 475 do not · updated 2026-11-01 13:40 UTC
- 0x50f7 bought Down in Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ETat 100¢ · 2026-11-01 13:39 UTC · 8 fills · their usual position: median $41, p75 $320$6.4K20.0× their p75
- Cannae bought No in Will Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?at 71¢ · 2026-11-01 13:38 UTC · their usual position: median $68, p75 $303$1.3K4.3× their p75
- Lilybaeum bought Adolfo Vallejo in Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonegoat 43¢ · 2026-11-01 13:37 UTC · 12 fills · their usual position: median $97, p75 $420$3.7K8.7× their p75
- 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 bought No in Will Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC win on 2026-11-01?at 53¢ · 2026-11-01 13:37 UTC · their usual position: median $162, p75 $840$2.8K3.3× their p75
- UpTheBlues bought No in Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-11-01?at 95¢ · 2026-11-01 13:37 UTC · 2 fills · their usual position: median $55, p75 $311$1.9K6.1× their p75
- LuckyLoo bought No in Will Celtic FC win on 2026-11-01?at 56¢ · 2026-11-01 13:35 UTC · 2 fills · their usual position: median $22, p75 $93$1.2K12.4× their p75
- 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 bought Yes in Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-11-01?at 72¢ · 2026-11-01 13:33 UTC · 3 fills · their usual position: median $220, p75 $705$2.2K3.1× their p75
- zxc368 bought Under in Como 1907 vs. Venezia FC: O/U 3.5at 100¢ · 2026-11-01 13:32 UTC · 10 fills · their usual position: median $74, p75 $617$13K21.7× their p75
- omnibus-076daa bought Under in Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 2.5at 51¢ · 2026-11-01 13:30 UTC · their usual position: median $70, p75 $339$2.1K6.1× their p75
- UpTheBlues bought Over in FC Baník Ostrava vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 2.5at 57¢ · 2026-11-01 13:30 UTC · 3 fills · their usual position: median $55, p75 $312$2.9K9.2× their p75
- Next-Licensing bought Under in Como 1907 vs. Venezia FC: O/U 3.5at 100¢ · 2026-11-01 13:30 UTC · 2 fills · their usual position: median $164, p75 $999$4.0K4.0× their p75
- 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 bought No in Exact Score: SS Lazio 3 - 0 Cagliari Calcio?at 91¢ · 2026-11-01 13:30 UTC · their usual position: median $163, p75 $840$13K15.5× their p75
- VeryLucky888 bought No in Exact Score: SS Lazio 3 - 0 Cagliari Calcio?at 91¢ · 2026-11-01 13:30 UTC · 7 fills · their usual position: median $89, p75 $381$1.6K4.3× their p75
- forecastication4 bought No in Exact Score: SS Lazio 3 - 0 Cagliari Calcio?at 91¢ · 2026-11-01 13:30 UTC · 10 fills · their usual position: median $50, p75 $274$14K49.9× their p75
- SnakeBall bought Under in Varbergs BoIS vs. Ljungskile SK: Varbergs BoIS O/U 3.5at 98¢ · 2026-11-01 13:30 UTC · 5 fills · their usual position: median $48, p75 $215$1.3K6.2× their p75
- Forecastication2 bought Under in Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 221.5at 49¢ · 2026-11-01 13:30 UTC · 2 fills · their usual position: median $28, p75 $110$1.8K16.2× their p75
- AnonymousUsername bought No in Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?at 86¢ · 2026-11-01 13:29 UTC · 15 fills · their usual position: median $210, p75 $850$3.2K3.7× their p75
- zxc368 bought Over in Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: Sevilla FC O/U 0.5at 100¢ · 2026-11-01 13:28 UTC · their usual position: median $73, p75 $613$4.1K6.6× their p75
- zxc368 bought Venezia FC in Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5)at 100¢ · 2026-11-01 13:26 UTC · 15 fills · their usual position: median $74, p75 $617$9.0K14.6× their p75
- eweeew bought No in Exact Score: Any Other Score?at 97¢ · 2026-11-01 13:24 UTC · their usual position: median $323, p75 $1.1K$7.9K7.4× their p75
- UpTheBlues bought Under in Varbergs BoIS vs. Ljungskile SK: O/U 4.5at 90¢ · 2026-11-01 13:21 UTC · 3 fills · their usual position: median $55, p75 $312$1.0K3.3× their p75
- looppau bought Phantom in Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Phantom - Map 2 Winnerat 100¢ · 2026-11-01 13:20 UTC · 13 fills · their usual position: median $65, p75 $323$2.0K6.2× their p75
- Vps1 bought Metizport in Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Metizport - Map 2 Winnerat 100¢ · 2026-11-01 13:20 UTC · 26 fills · their usual position: median $15, p75 $100$12K121.7× their p75
- hedgevaultmainnet1 bought Lakers in Raptors vs. Lakersat 61¢ · 2026-11-01 13:20 UTC · 39 fills · their usual position: median $23, p75 $94$8.4K89.9× their p75
- 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 bought No in Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-11-01?at 52¢ · 2026-11-01 13:19 UTC · their usual position: median $163, p75 $840$3.9K4.7× their p75
- WeBuyHighWeSelllow bought No in Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-11-01?at 52¢ · 2026-11-01 13:19 UTC · 7 fills · their usual position: median $120, p75 $525$3.4K6.4× their p75
- RN1 bought No in Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-11-01?at 50¢ · 2026-11-01 13:19 UTC · 4 fills · their usual position: median $231, p75 $1.3K$11K7.8× their p75
- GoalLineGhost bought No in Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-11-01?at 52¢ · 2026-11-01 13:19 UTC · 3 fills · their usual position: median $151, p75 $684$2.7K3.9× their p75
- UpTheBlues bought Over in Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 218.5at 57¢ · 2026-11-01 13:16 UTC · 4 fills · their usual position: median $55, p75 $312$1.2K3.8× their p75
- UpTheBlues bought Yes in Will FK Spartak Moskva win on 2026-11-01?at 58¢ · 2026-11-01 13:16 UTC · 3 fills · their usual position: median $55, p75 $311$1.2K3.7× their p75
- StudyPrediction bought No in Will Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?at 66¢ · 2026-11-01 13:16 UTC · 23 fills · their usual position: median $713, p75 $1.2K$4.0K3.4× their p75
- BillBenter2026 bought Team Yandex in Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerat 56¢ · 2026-11-01 13:15 UTC · 27 fills · their usual position: median $111, p75 $358$1.2K3.4× their p75
- Herdonia bought Bears in Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)at 54¢ · 2026-11-01 13:15 UTC · 5 fills · their usual position: median $219, p75 $1.1K$6.8K6.1× their p75
- 0x50f7 bought Up in Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ETat 100¢ · 2026-11-01 13:14 UTC · their usual position: median $41, p75 $319$1.6K5.1× their p75
- 0x50f7 bought Up in Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ETat 100¢ · 2026-11-01 13:14 UTC · 3 fills · their usual position: median $41, p75 $319$4.1K12.9× their p75
- UpTheBlues bought Carlos Alcaraz in Erste Bank Open: Alex de Minaur vs Carlos Alcarazat 90¢ · 2026-11-01 13:14 UTC · 11 fills · their usual position: median $55, p75 $311$12K37.5× their p75
- GeorgeRe bought Team Spirit in Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerat 46¢ · 2026-11-01 13:14 UTC · 9 fills · their usual position: median $1.1K, p75 $3.2K$9.8K3.1× their p75
- 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276 bought No in Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?at 87¢ · 2026-11-01 13:13 UTC · their usual position: median $340, p75 $820$2.6K3.2× their p75
- purplegatto bought Yes in Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?at 66¢ · 2026-11-01 13:13 UTC · their usual position: median $96, p75 $513$5.3K10.3× their p75
- UpTheBlues bought No in Will Molde FK win on 2026-11-01?at 59¢ · 2026-11-01 13:11 UTC · 3 fills · their usual position: median $55, p75 $312$2.6K8.2× their p75
A conviction bet is a NEW position of at least 3× the trader's own 75th-percentile position cost over the previous 90 days, and at least $1,000; adding to an old position does not count. Size is not skill: see the research table above for what such bets returned. Past results, not advice.
How it is computed
- Followed ("copied, including their sells"). The copier mirrors every buy and every sell of the trader on a market at a fixed fraction of their size, pays a 1¢ half-spread and the taker fee on both legs (a buy at price + costs, a sell at price − costs) and holds whatever is left to resolution. Because the mirror is proportional, the figure does not depend on the fraction: it is the trader's own P/L on the market, re-priced with a copier's costs, per $1 of their buys. A sell of s shares while they hold H (by the fills) sells the fraction s / H of the copier's holding; sells the fills cannot explain (shares from splits or transfers) sell nothing. Every market the trader bought a side of counts, exited ones included; hedged markets (both sides kept, the rule below) are counted apart. A market is "in profit" when the copier's P/L is positive; a market resolved 50-50 with shares still held is neither. A fully exited market is settled as soon as the position closes, whatever the market does. The hold runs from the first buy to the close of the position, or to the settlement when shares were left.
- Followed 1 h later. Every leg is delayed to the dataset's next fill on the market at least 1 h after it (within 24 h): a buy with no such fill is missed, a sell with no such fill leaves the shares held to resolution. A market where the delayed copier never got in has no later figure — for in-play traders that is most of them, which is the point.
- Style. "In-and-out" from 50 % of settled markets fully sold before resolution, "holder" under 20 %, "mixed" between; from 10 settled markets. For an in-and-out trader the held-to-resolution row measures the markets they could not sell, not their trading.
- Held ("bought their entries and held, ignoring their sells"). An entry is a market the trader bought a side of and ended the dataset a net buyer of (kept more than 1 % of the shares bought). Markets only sold are not entries. Both sides kept with the smaller side at 25 % or more of the larger side's money is a hedge, left out and counted. Markets bought and sold out of entirely are "exited": counted apart, valued as if held to resolution. Buys after the market settled are dropped.
- Entry price and time. The volume-weighted average of the trader's buys of that side over the whole dataset, and the first buy. A copier at the first buy pays the first price, so this flatters traders who average down well.
- Return. $1 buys 1 / (price + 1¢ + fee) shares; the fee is Polymarket's taker fee for the market's category at that price (schedule). A share pays $1 if the side won, $0 if it lost, $0.50 when Polymarket resolved the market 50-50 (neither a win nor a loss). Resolution comes from the market's stored winner, else settlement prices, else the site's resolved list.
- Copied 1 h later. The same, at the dataset's first fill on the market by anyone between 1 h and 24 h after the entry (fills under 5 shares or $1 set no price). Without one, the entry has no later figure — most 15-minute and in-play markets had ended. A later price is only as good as the fills' timestamps: the site estimates them from block numbers, and rows read before the October 22 2026 repair can be hours off for old fills, so for 15-minute crypto markets treat the later-price column with suspicion until the dataset has been re-exported.
- Intervals. 95 %: Wilson for hit rates, a normal approximation for means; none under 10 resolved entries. Per-wallet distributions use wallets with 30+ resolved entries. Many entries of one trader fall in one event (sets of a match, legs of a parlay), so the real uncertainty is larger than the intervals.
- The full-history dataset. Every OrderFilled event on Polymarket's exchanges from December 2022 to October 25 2026, read from the chain (a verified public copy of the events up to October 4 2026, the chain itself after), one row per event counted for its maker: a taker's fill is the exchange's summary event of their order. The wallets are the 27,345 ever listed by a point-in-time rebuild of the site's tracked set (Polymarket's monthly leaderboard recomputed from on-chain P/L every day from August 2025, with the site's 30-day grace and win-rate gate, plus the curated wallets); each wallet's whole history counts, before and after it was listed, so the run that got it listed is in its figures. The "1 h later" price comes from every wallet's fills on the market, not only the tracked ones. Positions received by transfer, split or conversion are not fills: their sells sell nothing, as above, so traders who mostly sell such shares are under-counted.
- Hold times are the time from the first buy to the settlement (held model) or to the trader's exit (followed model), read off a histogram with edges at 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 … hours; the medians are approximate.
- Live conviction. The worker computes each tracked wallet's median and p75 position cost from its positions touched in the last 90 days (every 6 h) and checks the last 24 h of buys every 2 minutes; a position counts as new when at most 5 % of its dollars were bought before the window.
- What this is not. Not a ranking of traders to copy. Selecting the best past copy return out of thousands of wallets and expecting it to continue is the mistake every table here is built to show.
Data: /api/research/traders/copy · /api/research/traders/conviction · All research