Consensus PnL $53K · win rate 98% (2440–45, n=2485) · was PM monthly #177 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$52.6K
Record
2440W / 45L
Win Rate
98.0%
of 2485 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#97
Source
PM monthly #177
Trades
274
Markets
2,499
Volume
$45.7M
Specialties
2,296 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 99¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where c4acap's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: NBA — held side won 96% of 134 at an average 96¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 19)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 50% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 100% of 2273)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.