Consensus PnL $30K · win rate 96% (23856–1031, n=24887) · PM monthly #554 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$30.1K
Record
23856W / 1031L
Win Rate
96.0%
of 24887 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#127
Source
PM monthly #554
Trades
1,264
Markets
26,281
Volume
$9.4M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp $620 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETUp $28 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
Specialties
15,146 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 98¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where hoodquant's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 15% of 27)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 28% of 83)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 54% of 96)
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 99% of 14940)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.