FC København vs. SK Iberia 1999: FC København O/U 1.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $869 held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$868.98
$48.02
87.2¢ → 100¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 88.5¢ | $541.18 | $611.31 | +$70.14 | 51% 25751-24453 (50204) |
VE VenusianCTR | Underavg 21.1¢ | $124.21 | $108.87 | -$15.34 | 51% 1379-1343 (2722) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $68.62 | $70.38 | +$1.76 | 50% 25823-25522 (51345) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $59.76 | $38.13 | -$3.81 | 48% 61176-65982 (127158) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 22.9¢ | $27.43 | $24 | -$2.4 | 50% 1324-1301 (2625) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 22.9¢ | $18.62 | $16.29 | -$2.33 | 52% 1376-1291 (2667) |
Invested
$541.18
Value
$611.31
PnL
+$70.14
Record
51%
25751-24453 (50204)
Invested
$124.21
Value
$108.87
PnL
-$15.34
Record
51%
1379-1343 (2722)
Invested
$68.62
Value
$70.38
PnL
+$1.76
Record
50%
25823-25522 (51345)
Invested
$59.76
Value
$38.13
PnL
-$3.81
Record
48%
61176-65982 (127158)
Invested
$27.43
Value
$24
PnL
-$2.4
Record
50%
1324-1301 (2625)
Invested
$18.62
Value
$16.29
PnL
-$2.33
Record
52%
1376-1291 (2667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.