Live conviction bets

Tracked traders opening a position far bigger than they usually do. A bet shows up here within seconds of the trade reaching the site.

The rule: a NEW position (not an add-on to an old one) that costs at least 3× the trader's own 75th-percentile position over the last 90 days, and at least $1,000. Traders with fewer than 10 positions in that time have no baseline and are left out. Several buys within 24 hours count as one position; a bet appears on the buy that crosses the line and grows with later buys. Bets stay 7 days after the last buy.

Size is not skill. In the site's research, conviction bets leaned towards favourites, and their apparent edge vanished when compared within the same price range: what these bets returned. Not advice.

Amounts are the dollars the trader bought into the position. The current price is the side's price on Polymarket now; P/L is unrealised, at that price, as if the whole position were still held (sales are not shown here). Data for bots: GET /api/v1/conviction and the conviction event of the live stream (API docs).