Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-11-08?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 69¢ · $708 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$707.66
$2.84
68.8¢ → 69¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 68.9¢ | $513.85 | $514.87 | +$1.02 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 69¢ | $145.43 | $145.43 | +$0 | 40% 1343-2037 (3380) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $26.79 | $27.77 | +$0.98 | 39% 1339-2113 (3452) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $18.72 | $19.56 | +$0.84 | 48% 59324-63332 (122656) |
Invested
$513.85
Value
$514.87
PnL
+$1.02
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$145.43
Value
$145.43
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1343-2037 (3380)
Invested
$26.79
Value
$27.77
PnL
+$0.98
Record
39%
1339-2113 (3452)
Invested
$18.72
Value
$19.56
PnL
+$0.84
Record
48%
59324-63332 (122656)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.