Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $126 held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$125.79
-$13.55
4.7¢ → 4.5¢
-4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Late
846h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
15 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $28.46 | $40.4 | -$7.24 | 45% 3009-3702 (6711) |
ME MenacingTurtleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $38.24 | $36.43 | -$1.81 | 58% 296-217 (513) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $17.72 | $23.57 | +$5.58 | 44% 507-657 (1164) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $24 | $18.09 | -$5.29 | 55% 3185-2640 (5825) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $9.21 | $5.43 | -$3.79 | 51% 2598-2533 (5131) |
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.78 | $1.18 | -$0.63 | 52% 6156-5779 (11935) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.05 | $0.7 | -$0.37 | 50% 21358-21635 (42993) |
Invested
$28.46
Value
$40.4
PnL
-$7.24
Record
45%
3009-3702 (6711)
Invested
$38.24
Value
$36.43
PnL
-$1.81
Record
58%
296-217 (513)
Invested
$17.72
Value
$23.57
PnL
+$5.58
Record
44%
507-657 (1164)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$24
Value
$18.09
PnL
-$5.29
Record
55%
3185-2640 (5825)
Invested
$9.21
Value
$5.43
PnL
-$3.79
Record
51%
2598-2533 (5131)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100Invested
$1.78
Value
$1.18
PnL
-$0.63
Record
52%
6156-5779 (11935)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$0.37
Record
50%
21358-21635 (42993)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.