Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 14¢ · $444 held · ends Jan 25, 2027

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Mon, Jan 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$443.88

Combined PnL

-$40.59

Smart Money Entry

34.1¢ → 14¢

-59% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$362.06

Total Shares453

Combined PnL+$77.61

No2 traders

Total Value$81.82

Total Shares629

Combined PnL-$118.2

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anciano	Yesavg 62¢	$150.1	$213.39	+$64.25	55% 1470-1226 (2696)
AU auros2	Yes	$102.35	$102.35	-$0.54	— 6-1 (7)
TimeTravelerCTR	Noavg 34.3¢	$213.19	$80.74	-$122.83	41% 2127-3055 (5182)
ND ndb1<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$35.9	$46.32	+$13.9	64% 1054-596 (1650)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 14.8¢	$3.11	$1.08	+$4.63	45% 3009-3702 (6711)

anciano

Yes

Invested

$150.1

Value

$213.39

PnL

+$64.25

Record

55%

1470-1226 (2696)

auros2

Yes

Invested

$102.35

Value

$102.35

PnL

-$0.54

Record

—

6-1 (7)

TimeTravelerCTR

Invested

$213.19

Value

$80.74

PnL

-$122.83

Record

41%

2127-3055 (5182)

ndb1<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.9

Value

$46.32

PnL

+$13.9

Record

64%

1054-596 (1650)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$3.11

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$4.63

Record

45%

3009-3702 (6711)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.