Unusual new money · Open the market page
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
What the flagged wallets on this market have in common: when they entered, how they traded, how alike they look and where their money came from. New wallets betting big against the crowd. This is not proof that anyone knows anything.
18 flagged wallets, $212.9K in, 18 against the crowd (the crowd: No). Feed as of . How this is counted
How alike they look
Average similarity between any two flagged wallets: 0.23 on a 0–1 scale. No group of wallets scores 0.6 or more together: they look unrelated by these measures.
Closest pairs: k88f & 0x0639…5852 (0.453); Gmanstocktrades & Shalevt1 (0.418); Shalevt1 & k88f (0.334); wildroller & Daniel100x (0.325); DeRitardo & wildroller (0.303); DeRitardo & 0xBC14D36416C94CE01827250e1280aC3ebe4782 (0.3); DeRitardo & Baba55555 (0.297); Jerry5543 & k88f (0.297).
similarity = 0.35 × timing + 0.20 × size + 0.10 × side + 0.15 × markets + 0.20 × funding, each part 0–1: timing = exp(−minutes between the two entries ÷ 60); size = smaller position ÷ larger position; side = 1 when both hold the same outcome; markets = shared other markets ÷ all their other markets (Jaccard, 0 when neither has one); funding = 1 for the same first funder, 0.5 when funded within 60 minutes of each other, 0 otherwise or when unknown.
Similarity is a resemblance, not proof of coordination: two wallets can enter the same market within minutes by chance, and one person can run wallets that look nothing alike.
Timing
First entry , last : 472.94 hours between the first and the last. The first large trade the site saw on this market was . Typical gap between one entry and the next: 4.0 h; the longest: 9.3 days. Burstiness 0.343 (−1 evenly spaced, 0 random, +1 all at once).
No two wallets entered within 10 minutes of each other.
Entries per UTC hour of day — 4 at 20:00, 3 at 13:00, 2 at 18:00
Behaviour
18 wallets hold Yes ($212.9K, against the crowd). 6 × one fill, 2 × one big fill, 9 × a few fills, 1 × many small fills. 18 wallets have no other position the site can see. Mostly round sizes (multiples of $500): oshribit, Daniel100x, Gmanstocktrades, Shalevt1, Dearavi.
| Wallet | Entered (UTC) | After first | Side | Entry price | Position | P/L | Fills | Biggest fill | Share of its positions | Age · prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbDB40D7A6BeAAA05fb1e9c33046841EbF0C05Dagainst the crowd | first | Yes | 36¢avg 33.1¢ | $5.4K | +$384.04 | 2 buys, 2 sellsa few fills · holding · 1 round | $8.9K69 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 12 d · 6 | |
| avibirdiagainst the crowd | +2.6 days | Yes | 33¢avg 36.3¢ | $7.5K | −$164.71 | 3 buys, 1 sella few fills · holding | $6.8K53 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 7 d · 2 | |
| pollman53against the crowd | +2.7 days | Yes | 34.2¢avg 40.8¢ | $14.4K | −$1.9K | 3 buys, 1 sella few fills · adding · 1 round | $7.8K36 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 2.9 d · 6 | |
| Jerry5543against the crowd | +12.0 days | Yes | 27¢avg 27¢ | $7.9K | +$2.5K | 1 buyone fill · holding | $7.9K100 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 11.8 d · 1 | |
| oshribitagainst the crowd | +12.7 days | Yes | 28¢avg 28¢ | $14.9K | +$4.0K | 2 buysa few fills · holding · 1 round | $10.0K67 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 11.1 d · 5 | |
| 0xdccc52c0bddd4631c87b5e31c1db2abf184185against the crowd | +13.0 days | Yes | 27¢avg 29.8¢ | $50.0K | +$9.6K | 18 buys, 5 sellsmany small fills · holding · 6 round | $22.7K15 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 10.8 d · 2 | |
| DeRitardoagainst the crowd | +17.9 days | Yes | 28¢avg 28¢ | $10.0K | +$2.7K | 1 buyone fill · holding · 1 round | $10.0K100 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 5.8 d · 2 | |
| wildrolleragainst the crowd | +18.0 days | Yes | 29¢avg 29¢ | $6.8K | +$1.5K | 1 buyone fill · holding | $6.8K100 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 5.8 d · 2 | |
| Daniel100xagainst the crowd | +18.0 days | Yes | 29¢avg 29.5¢ | $19.0K | +$3.9K | 2 buysa few fills · holding · 2 round | $10.0K53 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 5.7 d · 2 | |
| 0xBC14D36416C94CE01827250e1280aC3ebe4782against the crowd | +18.1 days | Yes | 29¢avg 29¢ | $9.9K | +$2.2K | 1 buyone fill · holding | $9.9K100 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 5.6 d · 4 | |
| Gmanstocktradesagainst the crowd | +18.4 days | Yes | 27.1¢avg 27.1¢ | $6.2K | +$1.9K | 2 buysa few fills · holding · 1 round | $3.2K52 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 5.3 d · 3 | |
| Shalevt1against the crowd | +18.5 days | Yes | 28¢avg 27.9¢ | $7.0K | +$1.9K | 2 buysone big fill · holding · 2 round | $5.0K71 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 5.3 d · 2 | |
| k88fagainst the crowd | +18.6 days | Yes | 28.1¢avg 28.1¢ | $7.8K | +$2.0K | 1 buyone fill · holding | $7.8K100 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 5.2 d · 2 | |
| 0x0639…5852against the crowd | +18.6 days | Yes | 28.8¢avg 28.1¢ | $10.5K | +$2.8K | 3 buysa few fills · holding | $4.8K46 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 5.2 d · 2 | |
| Netanael27against the crowd | +18.7 days | Yes | 21¢avg 28.3¢ | $5.6K | +$1.4K | 2 buysa few fills · holding | $2.8K50 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 5 d · 2 | |
| Baba55555against the crowd | +18.9 days | Yes | 24¢avg 25.7¢ | $10.2K | +$3.9K | 3 buysa few fills · holding · 1 round | $6.0K59 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 4.8 d · 2 | |
| Dearaviagainst the crowd | +19.1 days | Yes | 42.5¢avg 44.4¢ | $13.5K | −$2.7K | 2 buysone big fill · holding · 2 round | $11.0K82 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 4.7 d · 2 | |
| 0x56EFB8287A037961FAdAad0ebB0483Fa159aD0against the crowd | +19.7 days | Yes | 48¢avg 48¢ | $6.4K | −$1.7K | 1 buyone fill · holding | $6.4K100 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 4 d · 1 |
Identical sizes (fills within 2 % of each other, placed by different wallets): $10.0K × 5 fills by DeRitardo, 0xBC14D36416C94CE01827250e1280aC3ebe4782, 0xdccc52c0bddd4631c87b5e31c1db2abf184185, Daniel100x, oshribit; $7.8K × 4 fills by k88f, pollman53, Jerry5543; $9.0K × 2 fills by 0xdccc52c0bddd4631c87b5e31c1db2abf184185, Daniel100x; $8.8K × 2 fills by 0xbDB40D7A6BeAAA05fb1e9c33046841EbF0C05D, 0xdccc52c0bddd4631c87b5e31c1db2abf184185; $6.8K × 3 fills by avibirdi, 0xbDB40D7A6BeAAA05fb1e9c33046841EbF0C05D; $5.9K × 2 fills by pollman53, 0xdccc52c0bddd4631c87b5e31c1db2abf184185.
No other market is traded by two of these wallets in the live feed.
Funding
Funding data is being collected. It shows each wallet's first incoming USDC transfers on Polygon: the sender, the amount and how long before the first trade.
Read this with care
- Similarity is a resemblance, not proof of coordination: two wallets can enter the same market within minutes by chance, and one person can run wallets that look nothing alike.
- Positions, sizes and times come from the large fills ($1,000 or more) the site saw; smaller fills and fills before the site first met a wallet are not counted, so every figure is a floor.
- Funding data is being collected for 18 wallets.
Not financial advice. Data for bots: GET /api/v1/new-money/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel (API docs).