Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

88 of 136 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 64¢ · $4.0M held · ended Oct 28

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

136

No 65%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0M

Combined PnL

$3.9K

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 63.5¢

-3% since entry · 88 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 64%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

88 of 136 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed48 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No88 traders

Total Value$2.5M

Total Shares3,996,769

Combined PnL$-129.5K

Yes48 traders

Total Value$1.1M

Total Shares2,784,282

Combined PnL+$133.4K

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

89 traders

Top 2 hold 24%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

138 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 24% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 53

Aligned

sharpNo 64% · 44

Aligned

sniperYes 50% · 6

Diverging

ctrNo 61% · 66

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 76% · 58

Aligned

Top 1000No 61% · 103

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI CinibengalesARB<$100	Noavg 60¢	$307.0K	$350.9K	+$43.9K	— 2-8 (10)
└ No leg	Noavg 60¢	$210.0K	$215.2K	+$5.2K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.5¢	$97.0K	$135.6K	+$38.7K
FL flawfence	Noavg 63.6¢	$316.1K	$305.8K	$-10.3K	46% 271-319 (590)
WA wan123	Noavg 69.8¢	$308.1K	$271.5K	$-36.6K	39% 196-304 (500)
0X 0x389D2790cD8eaD87028F68eAa7CFadB6c53f5866-1767895502715CTR	Yesavg 47¢	$23.5K	$233.0K	+$10.1K	37% 11-19 (30)
DR dromedaryy	Noavg 54.5¢	$202.4K	$228.3K	+$25.9K	35% 35-64 (99)
SU surf	Noavg 51.1¢	$141.4K	$170.1K	+$28.6K	52% 381-352 (733)
foodenjoyer	Noavg 72.4¢	$186.2K	$161.7K	$-24.4K	49% 47-49 (96)
pikachusplaceCTR	Yesavg 25.4¢	$100.2K	$151.6K	+$51.4K	33% 108-215 (323)
tourists	Noavg 66.5¢	$152.1K	$141.7K	$-8.0K	66% 427-222 (649)
OnlyBibi2026CTR	Yesavg 29.1¢	$3.4K	$138.2K	+$30.8K	—
TU turo	Noavg 68.6¢	$125.5K	$114.2K	$-11.2K	72% 18-7 (25)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Noavg 67.8¢	$123.1K	$111.7K	$-11.4K	53% 915-808 (1723)
Dropper	Noavg 67.4¢	$116.4K	$107.1K	$-10.1K	71% 1136-463 (1599)
NE NeverGaveUpCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$44.9K	$89.0K	+$12.2K	51% 21-20 (41)
CO cosmicxbtCTR	Yesavg 47.5¢	$95.0K	$80.0K	$-20.0K	69% 27-12 (39)
ON One2677CTR	Yesavg 26.5¢	$50.0K	$72.7K	+$22.8K	— 1-0 (1)
SL slingerbitCTR	Yes	$63.9K	$63.9K	+$0	—
MI Michael1615CTR	Yesavg 45¢	$20.27	$51.5K	+$12.4K	41% 11-16 (27)
debased	Noavg 72.8¢	$167.2K	$49.7K	$-6.8K	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
RE rebotsliaf	Noavg 65.5¢	$46.0K	$43.9K	$-2.1K	25% 185-564 (749)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 70.1¢	$50.3K	$43.9K	$-6.4K	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
Kickstand7	Noavg 75.3¢	$53.7K	$43.9K	$-9.8K	61% 496-318 (814)
SA saftey-first	Noavg 72.3¢	$47.9K	$41.1K	$-6.5K	— 12-5 (17)
CH christianoxCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$45.0K	$38.5K	$-6.5K	50% 58-59 (117)
0X 0x1F4e655BB78BBd93038ceaf0040794Cce3df49c8-1776787899753CTR	Yesavg 31¢	$29.9K	$37.2K	+$7.3K	— 1-1 (2)

CinibengalesARB<$100

Invested

$306,985.94

Value

$350.9K

PnL

+$43.9K

Record

—

2-8 (10)

Both legs:

No$209,999.9960¢+$5.2K

Yes$96,95627.5¢+$38.7K

flawfence

Invested

$316,113.88

Value

$305.8K

PnL

$-10.3K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

wan123

Invested

$308,075.83

Value

$271.5K

PnL

$-36.6K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

0x389D2790cD8eaD87028F68eAa7CFadB6c53f5866-1767895502715CTR

Yes

Invested

$23,500

Value

$233.0K

PnL

+$10.1K

Record

37%

11-19 (30)

dromedaryy

Invested

$202,361.87

Value

$228.3K

PnL

+$25.9K

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

surf

Invested

$141,405.48

Value

$170.1K

PnL

+$28.6K

Record

52%

381-352 (733)

foodenjoyer

Invested

$186,166.62

Value

$161.7K

PnL

$-24.4K

Record

49%

47-49 (96)

pikachusplaceCTR

Yes

Invested

$100,168.06

Value

$151.6K

PnL

+$51.4K

Record

33%

108-215 (323)

tourists

Invested

$152,065.69

Value

$141.7K

PnL

$-8.0K

Record

66%

427-222 (649)

OnlyBibi2026CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,375.31

Value

$138.2K

PnL

+$30.8K

Record

—

turo

Invested

$125,461.53

Value

$114.2K

PnL

$-11.2K

Record

72%

18-7 (25)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Invested

$123,080.01

Value

$111.7K

PnL

$-11.4K

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

Dropper

Invested

$116,353.14

Value

$107.1K

PnL

$-10.1K

Record

71%

1136-463 (1599)

NeverGaveUpCTR

Yes

Invested

$44,940

Value

$89.0K

PnL

+$12.2K

Record

51%

21-20 (41)

cosmicxbtCTR

Yes

Invested

$94,999.98

Value

$80.0K

PnL

$-20.0K

Record

69%

27-12 (39)

One2677CTR

Yes

Invested

$49,979.77

Value

$72.7K

PnL

+$22.8K

Record

—

1-0 (1)

slingerbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$63,852.82

Value

$63.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Michael1615CTR

Yes

Invested

$20.27

Value

$51.5K

PnL

+$12.4K

Record

41%

11-16 (27)

debased

Invested

$167,209.86

Value

$49.7K

PnL

$-6.8K

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

rebotsliaf

Invested

$46,028.35

Value

$43.9K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$50,331.71

Value

$43.9K

PnL

$-6.4K

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

Kickstand7

Invested

$53,717.64

Value

$43.9K

PnL

$-9.8K

Record

61%

496-318 (814)

saftey-first

Invested

$47,937.4

Value

$41.1K

PnL

$-6.5K

Record

—

12-5 (17)

christianoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$45,000

Value

$38.5K

PnL

$-6.5K

Record

50%

58-59 (117)

0x1F4e655BB78BBd93038ceaf0040794Cce3df49c8-1776787899753CTR

Yes

Invested

$29,944.77

Value

$37.2K

PnL

+$7.3K

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 64%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

88 of 136 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed48 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

89 traders

Top 2 hold 24%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

138 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 24% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 53

Aligned

sharpNo 64% · 44

Aligned

sniperYes 50% · 6

Diverging

ctrNo 61% · 66

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 76% · 58

Aligned

Top 1000No 61% · 103

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.5%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.