Unusual new money · Open the market page
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
What the flagged wallets on this market have in common: when they entered, how they traded, how alike they look and where their money came from. New wallets betting big against the crowd. This is not proof that anyone knows anything.
7 flagged wallets, $258.9K in, 6 against the crowd (the crowd: No). Feed as of . How this is counted
How alike they look
Average similarity between any two flagged wallets: 0.15 on a 0–1 scale. No group of wallets scores 0.6 or more together: they look unrelated by these measures.
| f0afjr | Dcciagb | whoareyoun | saiofunara | lijacq | 0x1aa92973 | lurkwurk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| f0afjr | · | 0.25 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| Dcciagb | 0.25 | · | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| whoareyoun | 0.11 | 0.24 | · | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| saiofunara | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.15 | · | 0.23 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| lijacq | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.23 | · | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| 0x1aa92973 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 | · | 0.04 |
| lurkwurk | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.04 | · |
similarity = 0.35 × timing + 0.20 × size + 0.10 × side + 0.15 × markets + 0.20 × funding, each part 0–1: timing = exp(−minutes between the two entries ÷ 60); size = smaller position ÷ larger position; side = 1 when both hold the same outcome; markets = shared other markets ÷ all their other markets (Jaccard, 0 when neither has one); funding = 1 for the same first funder, 0.5 when funded within 60 minutes of each other, 0 otherwise or when unknown.
Similarity is a resemblance, not proof of coordination: two wallets can enter the same market within minutes by chance, and one person can run wallets that look nothing alike.
Timing
First entry , last : 383.01 hours between the first and the last. The first large trade the site saw on this market was . Typical gap between one entry and the next: 38.4 h; the longest: 7.2 days. Burstiness -0.006 (−1 evenly spaced, 0 random, +1 all at once).
No two wallets entered within 10 minutes of each other.
Entries per UTC hour of day
Behaviour
6 wallets hold Yes ($252.9K, against the crowd); 1 wallet holds No ($6.0K). 2 × one fill, 4 × a few fills, 1 × many small fills. 5 wallets have no other position the site can see. Mostly round sizes (multiples of $500): f0afjr, saiofunara, lijacq, lurkwurk.
| Wallet | Entered (UTC) | After first | Side | Entry price | Position | P/L | Fills | Biggest fill | Share of its positions | Age · prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| f0afjragainst the crowd | first | Yes | 38¢avg 38.5¢ | $6.6K | −$1.4K | 2 buysa few fills · holding · 1 round | $3.6K55 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 27.6 d · 2 | |
| Dcciagbagainst the crowd | +5.1 days | Yes | 36¢avg 36¢ | $8.8K | −$1.3K | 1 buyone fill · holding | $8.8K100 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 11.7 d · 2 | |
| whoareyounagainst the crowd | +5.1 days | Yes | 36.7¢avg 35.1¢ | $150.0K | −$19.5K | 6 buysmany small fills · holding · 1 round | $35.8K24 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 11.6 d · 3 | |
| saiofunaraagainst the crowd | +5.5 days | Yes | 36.6¢avg 36.6¢ | $35.3K | −$5.9K | 4 buysa few fills · holding · 3 round | $11.0K31 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 11.2 d · 3 | |
| lijacqagainst the crowd | +12.8 days | Yes | 33¢avg 31.9¢ | $22.3K | −$965.79 | 4 buysa few fills · holding · 3 round | $12.0K54 % of its buys | 88 %2 other markets | 4 d · 999 | |
| 0x1aa9297344a8a802d00975fb4e4eab9a59854b | +13.8 days | No | 70¢avg 70¢ | $6.0K | −$42.5 | 1 buyone fill · holding | $6.0K100 % of its buys | 100 %0 other markets | 3 d · 1 | |
| lurkwurkagainst the crowd | +16.0 days | Yes | 29.4¢avg 29.4¢ | $30.0K | +$1.1K | 2 buysa few fills · opened · 2 round | $15.0K50 % of its buys | 39 %3 other markets | 0.8 d · 35 |
No two wallets placed fills of the same size.
No other market is traded by two of these wallets in the live feed.
Funding
Funding data is being collected. It shows each wallet's first incoming USDC transfers on Polygon: the sender, the amount and how long before the first trade.
Read this with care
- Similarity is a resemblance, not proof of coordination: two wallets can enter the same market within minutes by chance, and one person can run wallets that look nothing alike.
- Positions, sizes and times come from the large fills ($1,000 or more) the site saw; smaller fills and fills before the site first met a wallet are not counted, so every figure is a floor.
- Funding data is being collected for 7 wallets.
- Other markets come from the live feed's last 48 hours and the wallets' other open positions seen there; older trades are not visible.
Not financial advice. Data for bots: GET /api/v1/new-money/will-the-republicans-win-the-texas-senate-race-in-2026 (API docs).