Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

71 of 91 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 71¢ · $1.2M held · ends Nov 4

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$1.2M

Combined PnL

$66.4K

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 70.5¢

+10% since entry · 71 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 71%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

71 of 91 top traders (78%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No71 traders

Total Value$1.0M

Total Shares1,480,130

Combined PnL+$94.7K

Yes20 traders

Total Value$157.8K

Total Shares529,276

Combined PnL$-28.3K

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

71 traders

Top 2 hold 25%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

149 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 25% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 89% · 37

Aligned

sharpNo 97% · 31

Aligned

sniperYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 62% · 37

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 89% · 46

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 63

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA wan123	Noavg 59.1¢	$151.7K	$181.1K	+$29.3K	39% 196-304 (500)
DE defillama7	Noavg 66.2¢	$77.9K	$82.9K	+$5.1K	60% 32-21 (53)
BO botbotCTR	Yesavg 36.2¢	$89.1K	$73.9K	$-16.4K	43% 314-418 (732)
mr.ozi	Noavg 64.5¢	$64.5K	$70.5K	+$6.0K	68% 1239-582 (1821)
tourists	Noavg 64.6¢	$57.8K	$62.6K	+$5.3K	66% 427-222 (649)
WordleAddict	Noavg 68.3¢	$54.6K	$56.0K	+$1.8K	61% 941-614 (1555)
8D 8DDD	Noavg 70.4¢	$42.0K	$42.0K	+$0.9	53% 28-25 (53)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 30.6¢	$38.2K	$36.9K	$-1.4K	43% 561-738 (1299)
betwick	Noavg 70¢	$35.0K	$35.0K	+$250	55% 352-292 (644)
Tigerofthehood	Noavg 64¢	$26.2K	$28.6K	+$2.6K	87% 179-26 (205)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 66.4¢	$26.9K	$28.6K	+$1.7K	38% 20-32 (52)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Noavg 70¢	$28.2K	$28.4K	+$201.59	36% 190-333 (523)
Kettle	Noavg 65¢	$26.0K	$28.0K	+$2.2K	53% 241-218 (459)
JSG3	Noavg 66¢	$23.1K	$24.5K	+$1.6K	58% 14-10 (24)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Noavg 68¢	$20.4K	$21.1K	+$750	53% 915-808 (1723)
RE rebotsliaf	Noavg 61.8¢	$18.5K	$21.0K	+$2.6K	25% 185-564 (749)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 68.1¢	$20.4K	$20.9K	+$706.33	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
0X 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29	Noavg 65.5¢	$17.7K	$18.9K	+$1.4K	71% 215-88 (303)
0X 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2	Noavg 67.4¢	$18.0K	$17.9K	-$127.71	96% 328-13 (341)
JJo	Noavg 65.3¢	$17.3K	$17.7K	+$424.19	66% 944-496 (1440)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 63¢	$331.35	$17.5K	+$1.9K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
Dropper	Noavg 64¢	$14.2K	$15.6K	+$1.4K	71% 1136-463 (1599)
IV ivantoney	Noavg 62¢	$13.8K	$15.6K	+$1.9K	— 8-3 (11)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 46.2¢	$9.2K	$14.1K	+$4.9K	61% 203-132 (335)
PO poptree	Noavg 71¢	$14.2K	$14.0K	-$100	70% 390-171 (561)

wan123

Invested

$151,749.8

Value

$181.1K

PnL

+$29.3K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

defillama7

Invested

$77,857.39

Value

$82.9K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

60%

32-21 (53)

botbotCTR

Yes

Invested

$89,078.27

Value

$73.9K

PnL

$-16.4K

Record

43%

314-418 (732)

mr.ozi

Invested

$64,547.34

Value

$70.5K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

68%

1239-582 (1821)

tourists

Invested

$57,787.23

Value

$62.6K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

66%

427-222 (649)

WordleAddict

Invested

$54,599.91

Value

$56.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

8DDD

Invested

$41,999.04

Value

$42.0K

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

28-25 (53)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$38,248.93

Value

$36.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

betwick

Invested

$35,000

Value

$35.0K

PnL

+$250

Record

55%

352-292 (644)

Tigerofthehood

Invested

$26,158.04

Value

$28.6K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

87%

179-26 (205)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$26,888.31

Value

$28.6K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Invested

$28,216.71

Value

$28.4K

PnL

+$201.59

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

Kettle

Invested

$25,999.99

Value

$28.0K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

53%

241-218 (459)

JSG3

Invested

$23,100

Value

$24.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Invested

$20,399.99

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$750

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

rebotsliaf

Invested

$18,542.54

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$20,360.62

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$706.33

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29

Invested

$17,673.27

Value

$18.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

71%

215-88 (303)

0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2

Invested

$18,014.76

Value

$17.9K

PnL

-$127.71

Record

96%

328-13 (341)

JJo

Invested

$17,253.64

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$424.19

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$331.35

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

Dropper

Invested

$14,222.08

Value

$15.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

71%

1136-463 (1599)

ivantoney

Invested

$13,777.63

Value

$15.6K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

—

8-3 (11)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$9,231.88

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

poptree

Invested

$14,199.86

Value

$14.0K

PnL

-$100

Record

70%

390-171 (561)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 71%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

71 of 91 top traders (78%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

71 traders

Top 2 hold 25%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

149 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 25% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 89% · 37

Aligned

sharpNo 97% · 31

Aligned

sniperYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 62% · 37

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 89% · 46

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 63

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.3%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.