Consensus PnL -$32K · win rate 69% (486–215, n=701) · was PM monthly #847 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-32.0K
Record
486W / 215L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 701 settled
Batting Avg
25.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#779
Source
PM monthly #847
Trades
480
Markets
802
Volume
$1.6M
Specialties
752 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 74¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Esports — held side won 74% of 626 at an average 74¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 25% of 12)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 38% of 60)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 61% of 193)
- 70¢ and up: 65%(won 85% of 487)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.