Consensus PnL -$57K · win rate 55% (2959–2412, n=5371) · was PM monthly #992 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-57.3K
Record
2959W / 2412L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 5371 settled
Batting Avg
42.9%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1430
Source
PM monthly #992
Trades
1,808
Markets
6,695
Volume
$4.7M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Titans vs. BengalsBengals $397 · now 51¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (56% of 56)
Specialties
4,890 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 54¢- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 60% of 139 · avg entry 55¢
ROI −4%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 57% of 2032 at an average 57¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 16% of 649)
- 30–50¢: 28%(won 40% of 1371)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 61% of 1635)
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 84% of 1235)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.