Consensus PnL $30K · win rate 58% (7–5, n=12) · was PM monthly #986 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$29.7K
Record
7W / 5L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 12 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1317
Source
PM monthly #986
Trades
184
Markets
14
Volume
$71.9K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $120K · now 74¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (78% of 27)
Specialties
9 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 39¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x82F992AA9b803e79fDdb778FD512b6B9399f3950-1760523264221's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 44%(won 75% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 50% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 50% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.