Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

22 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (76%) · Yes at 73¢ · $234K held · ends Nov 29

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 76%

Total Value

$234.1K

Combined PnL

$11.5K

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 73¢

+13% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 73%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 29 top traders (76%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes22 traders

Total Value$224.5K

Total Shares332,540

Combined PnL+$13.2K

No7 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares35,307

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Yes — 76%No — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

948h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 89% · 9

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 88% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 81% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x82F992AA9b803e79fDdb778FD512b6B9399f3950-1760523264221	Yesavg 62¢	$4.5K	$107.2K	+$10.4K	32% 7-15 (22)
RI Richidd	Yesavg 69.2¢	$61.1K	$60.5K	-$600.93	46% 47-56 (103)
The-Joker	Yesavg 58¢	$11.6K	$13.4K	+$2.1K	68% 1507-701 (2208)
ST stupid22	Yesavg 81.6¢	$13.0K	$10.7K	$-2.0K	94% 411-26 (437)
betwick	Yesavg 56.7¢	$7.6K	$9.0K	+$1.7K	55% 352-292 (644)
AL alex20011CTR	Noavg 32.8¢	$9.7K	$8.0K	$-1.7K	48% 3491-3823 (7314)
MisTKy	Yesavg 61.6¢	$6.4K	$7.0K	+$724.45	71% 568-236 (804)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Yesavg 68.6¢	$4.7K	$4.2K	+$338	82% 1758-394 (2152)
0X 0x498d2...	Yesavg 59¢	$2.0K	$3.1K	+$437	— 7-3 (10)
eightpenguins	Yesavg 58¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$366.63	52% 304-281 (585)
TR troim	Yesavg 64¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$90	36% 397-691 (1088)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Noavg 37¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$103.6	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
HI hideo	Yesavg 92¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$383.15	76% 253-81 (334)
PMTraderAdam	Yesavg 63.1¢	$693.99	$736.99	+$59.5	77% 830-249 (1079)
Xeny	Yesavg 64¢	$640	$670	+$45	60% 978-662 (1640)
Car	Yesavg 64¢	$576	$603	+$40.5	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
TheGreekTraderPM	Yesavg 66¢	$587.15	$596.05	+$22.24	60% 430-285 (715)
StarMaster	Yesavg 65.4¢	$491.25	$502.5	+$11.25	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 63.2¢	$379	$402	+$32	76% 102-32 (134)
Tenebrus7	Yesavg 68¢	$360	$335	-$25	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
archaic	Yesavg 91¢	$405.5	$303.56	-$101.94	85% 1906-339 (2245)
CH chizidahu	Yesavg 60¢	$240	$268	+$34	41% 356-508 (864)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR	Noavg 26.6¢	$627.3	$197.54	-$4.67	53% 3725-3239 (6964)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 68.7¢	$174.16	$174.76	+$0.6	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
SH shiifooCTR	Noavg 28.3¢	$132.21	$135.27	+$14.72	59% 3428-2336 (5764)

0x82F992AA9b803e79fDdb778FD512b6B9399f3950-1760523264221

Yes

Invested

$4,531.81

Value

$107.2K

PnL

+$10.4K

Record

32%

7-15 (22)

Richidd

Yes

Invested

$61,109.53

Value

$60.5K

PnL

-$600.93

Record

46%

47-56 (103)

The-Joker

Yes

Invested

$11,599.99

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

stupid22

Yes

Invested

$13,049.99

Value

$10.7K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

94%

411-26 (437)

betwick

Yes

Invested

$7,638.49

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

55%

352-292 (644)

alex20011CTR

Invested

$9,677.03

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

48%

3491-3823 (7314)

MisTKy

Yes

Invested

$6,430

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$724.45

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Yes

Invested

$4,665.97

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$338

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

0x498d2...

Yes

Invested

$1,965.57

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$437

Record

—

7-3 (10)

eightpenguins

Yes

Invested

$1,657.86

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$366.63

Record

52%

304-281 (585)

troim

Yes

Invested

$1,280

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$90

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Invested

$1,234.47

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$103.6

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

hideo

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$383.15

Record

76%

253-81 (334)

PMTraderAdam

Yes

Invested

$693.99

Value

$736.99

PnL

+$59.5

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

Xeny

Yes

Invested

$640

Value

$670

PnL

+$45

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

Car

Yes

Invested

$576

Value

$603

PnL

+$40.5

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

TheGreekTraderPM

Yes

Invested

$587.15

Value

$596.05

PnL

+$22.24

Record

60%

430-285 (715)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$491.25

Value

$502.5

PnL

+$11.25

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$379

Value

$402

PnL

+$32

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

Tenebrus7

Yes

Invested

$360

Value

$335

PnL

-$25

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

archaic

Yes

Invested

$405.5

Value

$303.56

PnL

-$101.94

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

chizidahu

Yes

Invested

$240

Value

$268

PnL

+$34

Record

41%

356-508 (864)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR

Invested

$627.3

Value

$197.54

PnL

-$4.67

Record

53%

3725-3239 (6964)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$174.16

Value

$174.76

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

shiifooCTR

Invested

$132.21

Value

$135.27

PnL

+$14.72

Record

59%

3428-2336 (5764)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 73%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 29 top traders (76%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

948h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 89% · 9

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 88% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 81% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.8%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.