Consensus PnL $47K · win rate 39% (1255–1949, n=3204) · was PM monthly #975 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$47.0K
Record
1255W / 1949L
Win Rate
39.0%
of 3204 settled
Batting Avg
61.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2384
Source
PM monthly #975
Record (90 d)
850/2288 · 37%
Trades
786
Markets
3,886
Volume
$517.1K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will CD Tenerife win on 2026-11-01?No $2 · now 5¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
2,119 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 37¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 48%(won 17% of 1023)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 39% of 536)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 60% of 345)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 86% of 215)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.