Will CD Tenerife win on 2026-11-01?

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 88¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 2

Yes88¢No12¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$435.25

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 88¢

+27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 18 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,195

Combined PnL+$84.7

No12 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,763

Combined PnL-$519.95

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 81.1¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$36.7	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 53.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$134.11	51% 17616-16619 (34235)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.51	50% 183-181 (364)
RN1CTR	Noavg 25.5¢	$622.84	$259.72	-$363.12	54% 58149-50375 (108524)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 12.3¢	$76.48	$71.56	-$4.92	47% 10056-11172 (21228)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$46.09	$58.71	+$12.62	50% 34711-34174 (68885)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62¢	$23.87	$34.27	+$10.4
└ No leg	Noavg 10¢	$22.22	$24.44	+$2.22
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$58.42	$58.13	-$13.61	61% 13847-8753 (22600)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 58.2¢	$69.19	$42.23	-$26.96	51% 6155-5874 (12029)
SU suntoriCTR	Noavg 58¢	$141.42	$29.26	-$112.16	45% 12923-15690 (28613)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$27.78	$17.26	-$10.52	53% 6373-5762 (12135)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$22.53	$13.98	-$8.55	58% 48519-34669 (83188)
0X 0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$6.18	$10.45	+$4.27	42% 1632-2230 (3862)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$13.4	$9.02	-$4.77	62% 1230-751 (1981)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 16.3¢	$9.19	$5.93	-$3.25	58% 11437-8289 (19726)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$5.32	$5.88	+$0.7	53% 16265-14441 (30706)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$5.8	$5.75	-$0.05	51% 1000-963 (1963)
SM smithagent<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$5	$4.79	-$0.2	48% 3291-3581 (6872)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$0.72	$1.13	+$0.41	49% 13479-14176 (27655)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 14.4¢	$1.55	$1.12	-$0.42	44% 4039-5233 (9272)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,679.2

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$36.7

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,162.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$134.11

Record

51%

17616-16619 (34235)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$1,198.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.51

Record

50%

183-181 (364)

RN1CTR

Invested

$622.84

Value

$259.72

PnL

-$363.12

Record

54%

58149-50375 (108524)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$76.48

Value

$71.56

PnL

-$4.92

Record

47%

10056-11172 (21228)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.09

Value

$58.71

PnL

+$12.62

Record

50%

34711-34174 (68885)

Both legs:

Invested

$58.42

Value

$58.13

PnL

-$13.61

Record

61%

13847-8753 (22600)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$69.19

Value

$42.23

PnL

-$26.96

Record

51%

6155-5874 (12029)

suntoriCTR

Invested

$141.42

Value

$29.26

PnL

-$112.16

Record

45%

12923-15690 (28613)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$27.78

Value

$17.26

PnL

-$10.52

Record

53%

6373-5762 (12135)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$22.53

Value

$13.98

PnL

-$8.55

Record

58%

48519-34669 (83188)

0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10CTR<$100

Invested

$6.18

Value

$10.45

PnL

+$4.27

Record

42%

1632-2230 (3862)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$13.4

Value

$9.02

PnL

-$4.77

Record

62%

1230-751 (1981)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$9.19

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$3.25

Record

58%

11437-8289 (19726)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

16265-14441 (30706)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1000-963 (1963)

smithagent<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

3291-3581 (6872)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.41

Record

49%

13479-14176 (27655)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$0.42

Record

44%

4039-5233 (9272)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 18 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.