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BE
Consensus PnL -$35K · win rate 67% (4–2, n=6) · hand-picked wallet · holds 1 consensus position
0xbe482cd6...5769683fPolymarket
⚖️Arb
Consensus PnL
$-35.4K
Record
4W / 2L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 6 settled
Batting Avg
84.6%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#869
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
769
Markets
24
Volume
$979.0K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $21K · now 86¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (87% of 47)
Specialties
19 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 70¢- Geopolitics
+15 pts
side won 88% of 17 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 50% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 68%(won 92% of 13)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.