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Geopolitics: what top Polymarket traders hold

Wars, ceasefires, sanctions and diplomacy. These are the Geopolitics markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.

A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.

Live consensus markets
234
Recently settled, consensus right
58 of 67
Prices as of
Nov 1, 14:41 UTC

Live Geopolitics consensus markets (234)

Showing the 100 markets with the most traders of 234; the markets page has them all.

Top traders in Geopolitics

Tracked traders with 10 or more settled Geopolitics consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.

  1. 1.TimeTraveler+56 ptsside won 89% of 64 · avg entry 33¢ · ROI +41%
  2. 2.wan123+43 ptsside won 100% of 56 · avg entry 57¢ · ROI +48%
  3. 3.PhongLeXBT+47 ptsside won 82% of 22 · avg entry 35¢ · ROI +23%
  4. 4.BigMackyG+39 ptsside won 87% of 38 · avg entry 48¢ · ROI +30%
  5. 5.surf+32 ptsside won 90% of 50 · avg entry 58¢ · ROI +38%
  6. 6.JAMJAMJAM4+23 ptsside won 98% of 217 · avg entry 75¢ · ROI +20%
  7. 7.881112+24 ptsside won 75% of 296 · avg entry 51¢ · ROI +14%
  8. 8.ololololololololo+39 ptsside won 94% of 18 · avg entry 56¢ · ROI +19%
  9. 9.eightpenguins+27 ptsside won 76% of 98 · avg entry 49¢ · ROI +20%
  10. 10.Gohst+22 ptsside won 47% of 366 · avg entry 25¢ · ROI +13%

Recently settled Geopolitics markets

What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.

Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.