Consensus PnL -$8.8K · win rate 97% (3404–88, n=3492) · was PM monthly #837 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-8.8K
Record
3404W / 88L
Win Rate
97.0%
of 3492 settled
Batting Avg
65.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#101
Source
PM monthly #837
Record (90 d)
2302/2349 · 98%
Trades
2,061
Markets
3,655
Volume
$28.8M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere $2.0K · now 99¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (70% of 31)
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons $277 · now 97¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (58% of 33)
Specialties
3,488 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 97¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: College Basketball — held side won 92% of 13 at an average 99¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −15%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 0% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 36% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 53% of 32)
- 70¢ and up: 98%(won 99% of 3435)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.