Consensus PnL $76K · win rate 68% (20980–10094, n=31074) · PM monthly #967 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$75.8K
Record
20980W / 10094L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 31074 settled
Batting Avg
55.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#792
Source
PM monthly #967
Trades
629
Markets
104,224
Volume
$10.1M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 6 on the consensus side (67%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ETUp $35 · now 52¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (75% of 20)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ETUp $33 · now 100¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (68% of 31)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ETUp $25 · now 40¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ETDown $16 · now 100¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (54% of 27)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ETUp $12 · now 0¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Down)
- Solana Up or Down - November 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ETDown $10 · now 0¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
5,171 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 59¢- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 62% of 5169 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 13% of 954)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 41% of 846)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 68% of 1108)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 88% of 2263)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.