Consensus PnL -$11K · win rate 71% (50–20, n=70) · PM monthly #420 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-10.8K
Record
50W / 20L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 70 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#714
Source
PM monthly #420
Trades
98
Markets
75
Volume
$473.4K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $8.4K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
Specialties
70 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 75¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xc7285A98C485b4350cE50fA0B67f067693dE3E5b-1768074690253's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Esports — held side won 78% of 18 at an average 82¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 33% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 67% of 12)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 83% of 52)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.