Consensus PnL $19K · win rate 100% (3–0, n=3) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$18.9K
Record
3W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 3 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#31
Source
PM monthly #998
Trades
8
Markets
4
Volume
$26.6K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes $5.9K · now 20¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
3 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 65¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xe4df6f8df7ea953d63fb28272b792ebe41a939d9's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.