Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

23 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 81¢ · $113K held · ends Nov 4

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$113.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 80.5¢

+1% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 81%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

23 of 37 top traders (62%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No23 traders

Total Value$96.5K

Total Shares120,308

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$16.9K

Total Shares86,871

Combined PnL$-3.6K

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

4858h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 78% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 8

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 52% · 21

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 71% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000No 59% · 29

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 80¢	$39.0K	$39.3K	+$238.34	38% 20-32 (52)
PI pieped	Noavg 82¢	$9.6K	$9.4K	-$175.87	42% 71-100 (171)
0X 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2	Noavg 80.9¢	$9.3K	$9.2K	-$46.96	96% 328-13 (341)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Noavg 82¢	$8.2K	$8.0K	-$150	36% 190-333 (523)
0X 0xe4df6f8df7ea953d63fb28272b792ebe41a939d9CTR	Yesavg 19.9¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$115	— 3-0 (3)
CO cocos228	Noavg 83¢	$6.0K	$5.8K	-$108.43	72% 68-27 (95)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 75¢	$4.5K	$4.9K	+$395.97	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
IC ic4creamCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$89.35	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 73¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$278.46	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 23.6¢	$3.4K	$2.8K	-$586.78	50% 5949-6040 (11989)
FL FluffyMD2026CTR	Yesavg 20.9¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$198.88	— 2-9 (11)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant	Noavg 70.5¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$349.58	55% 78-65 (143)
wagwanshawty	Noavg 82¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$46.46	— 10-5 (15)
JSG3	Noavg 81¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$15	58% 14-10 (24)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 75.8¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$96.7	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Noavg 80¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$10	67% 751-378 (1129)
LI lissartter	Noavg 78.7¢	$2.2K	$1.3K	+$12.99	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
bernardbulletin	Noavg 79.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$8.04	69% 987-450 (1437)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Noavg 81¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15	82% 1758-394 (2152)
YO YouSayUpISayDown	Noavg 79.4¢	$908.73	$835.13	+$5.4	53% 3725-3239 (6964)
GohstCTR	Yesavg 31.5¢	$839.7	$518.99	-$320.71	49% 738-770 (1508)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 78¢	$1.7K	$432.9	$-1.3K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
nicoco89	Noavg 34.1¢	$167.93	$400.01	+$232.08	65% 1075-583 (1658)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Yesavg 32¢	$181.75	$396.04	-$253.87	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
mombil	Noavg 60¢	$266.13	$354.84	+$90.93	55% 1191-966 (2157)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$39,029.78

Value

$39.3K

PnL

+$238.34

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

pieped

Invested

$9,556.26

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$175.87

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2

Invested

$9,259.98

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$46.96

Record

96%

328-13 (341)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Invested

$8,200

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$150

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

0xe4df6f8df7ea953d63fb28272b792ebe41a939d9CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,000

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$115

Record

—

3-0 (3)

cocos228

Invested

$6,000

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$108.43

Record

72%

68-27 (95)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$4,477.48

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$395.97

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

ic4creamCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,370.39

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$89.35

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$3,148.71

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$278.46

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,397.26

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$586.78

Record

50%

5949-6040 (11989)

FluffyMD2026CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$198.88

Record

—

2-9 (11)

SquirrelTheMerchant

Invested

$2,249.82

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$349.58

Record

55%

78-65 (143)

wagwanshawty

Invested

$2,461.46

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$46.46

Record

—

10-5 (15)

JSG3

Invested

$2,430

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$15

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

cocococococo

Invested

$1,565.58

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$96.7

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Invested

$1,600

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$10

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

lissartter

Invested

$2,184.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.99

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

bernardbulletin

Invested

$1,239.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$8.04

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Invested

$1,215

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

YouSayUpISayDown

Invested

$908.73

Value

$835.13

PnL

+$5.4

Record

53%

3725-3239 (6964)

GohstCTR

Yes

Invested

$839.7

Value

$518.99

PnL

-$320.71

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,731.59

Value

$432.9

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

nicoco89

Invested

$167.93

Value

$400.01

PnL

+$232.08

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.75

Value

$396.04

PnL

-$253.87

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

mombil

Invested

$266.13

Value

$354.84

PnL

+$90.93

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 81%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

23 of 37 top traders (62%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

4858h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 78% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 8

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 52% · 21

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 71% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000No 59% · 29

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.1%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.