Consensus PnL $28K · win rate 51% (2531–2403, n=4934) · PM monthly #963 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$27.5K
Record
2531W / 2403L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 4934 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1169
Source
PM monthly #963
Record (90 d)
3126/6246 · 50%
Trades
45,750
Markets
19,250
Volume
$3.3M
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ETUp $161 · now 100¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (76% of 44)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ETUp $109 · now 100¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (71% of 36)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ETUp $101 · now 51¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (50% of 7)
Specialties
3,491 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 50¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 4% of 763)
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 34% of 1033)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 72% of 869)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 94% of 826)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.