Consensus PnL $46K · win rate 67% (4–2, n=6) · was PM monthly #925 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$45.5K
Record
4W / 2L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 6 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#865
Source
PM monthly #925
Trades
12
Markets
11
Volume
$66.5K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No $48K · now 47¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $37K · now 46¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
7 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 71¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xffBbF885454E6930e54b720ad5224175b8AE36e9-1720913580384's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 80% of 5)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.