Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

20 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (74%) · Yes at 54¢ · $211K held · ends Jan 2, 2027

Yes54¢No46¢Ends Sat, Jan 2, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 74%

Total Value

$210.7K

Combined PnL

$-11.4K

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 53.5¢

-29% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 54%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 27 top traders (74%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes20 traders

Total Value$144.2K

Total Shares274,172

Combined PnL$-43.4K

No7 traders

Total Value$66.5K

Total Shares141,531

Combined PnL+$32.0K

Yes — 74%No — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

52 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 78% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 91% · 11

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 79% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Yesavg 85¢	$90.2K	$56.7K	$-33.4K	63% 353-204 (557)
0X 0xffBbF885454E6930e54b720ad5224175b8AE36e9-1720913580384CTR	Noavg 14.6¢	$14.8K	$47.5K	+$32.2K	— 4-2 (6)
no1yet	Yesavg 85¢	$42.5K	$26.0K	$-15.8K	94% 130-9 (139)
occasionalAwarenessCTR	Noavg 48¢	$19.0K	$18.4K	-$586.5	52% 284-262 (546)
BMM-1	Yesavg 56.5¢	$17.7K	$16.3K	-$925.21	95% 19-1 (20)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Yesavg 84¢	$5.7K	$13.9K	+$8.4K	88% 212-28 (240)
RE redvinny	Yesavg 70.5¢	$13.3K	$10.3K	$-3.1K	75% 1520-504 (2024)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876	Yesavg 43.9¢	$5.3K	$6.2K	+$1.2K	45% 112-138 (250)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 46.4¢	$4.9K	$5.3K	+$717.51	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
Xeny	Yesavg 59.7¢	$4.2K	$3.4K	-$385.54	60% 978-662 (1640)
KimchiCapital	Yesavg 58.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$108.64	75% 540-176 (716)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 45.3¢	$877.79	$1.0K	+$148.47	68% 2074-958 (3032)
0X 0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036	Yesavg 66.5¢	$1.1K	$839.18	-$210.55	82% 234-52 (286)
vinii	Yesavg 37.3¢	$566.96	$830.47	+$263.52	74% 2792-1004 (3796)
DEGENKHAN	Yesavg 61¢	$698.22	$752.96	+$54.74	66% 1107-565 (1672)
Optimus-	Yesavg 65¢	$842	$673.6	-$148.97	61% 1200-768 (1968)
FA failstoberCTR	Noavg 13¢	$144.42	$522.14	+$372.17	26% 351-985 (1336)
clazzy1	Yesavg 40¢	$227.87	$304.13	+$76.26	62% 413-249 (662)
AM amis	Yesavg 86¢	$335.14	$202.64	-$126.65	88% 249-34 (283)
Coram_Deo	Yesavg 86.3¢	$187.08	$114.78	-$72.3	81% 229-54 (283)
XAE12Archangel<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$70.13	$76.02	+$8.08	66% 784-407 (1191)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Noavg 28.5¢	$55.21	$60.21	+$5	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
RI Richidd<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$50	$38.21	-$11.79	46% 47-56 (103)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Noavg 39.3¢	$279.54	$30.05	+$1.6	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
PA pako<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$4.3	$2.6	-$1.63	65% 250-132 (382)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Yes

Invested

$90,159.27

Value

$56.7K

PnL

$-33.4K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

0xffBbF885454E6930e54b720ad5224175b8AE36e9-1720913580384CTR

Invested

$14,777.19

Value

$47.5K

PnL

+$32.2K

Record

—

4-2 (6)

no1yet

Yes

Invested

$42,500

Value

$26.0K

PnL

$-15.8K

Record

94%

130-9 (139)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

Invested

$18,963.62

Value

$18.4K

PnL

-$586.5

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

BMM-1

Yes

Invested

$17,677.98

Value

$16.3K

PnL

-$925.21

Record

95%

19-1 (20)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Yes

Invested

$5,707.24

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$8.4K

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

redvinny

Yes

Invested

$13,343.65

Value

$10.3K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

75%

1520-504 (2024)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876

Yes

Invested

$5,265.86

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$4,897.33

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$717.51

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

Xeny

Yes

Invested

$4,200.97

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$385.54

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

KimchiCapital

Yes

Invested

$1,310.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$108.64

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$877.79

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$148.47

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036

Yes

Invested

$1,073.95

Value

$839.18

PnL

-$210.55

Record

82%

234-52 (286)

vinii

Yes

Invested

$566.96

Value

$830.47

PnL

+$263.52

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

DEGENKHAN

Yes

Invested

$698.22

Value

$752.96

PnL

+$54.74

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Optimus-

Yes

Invested

$842

Value

$673.6

PnL

-$148.97

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

failstoberCTR

Invested

$144.42

Value

$522.14

PnL

+$372.17

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

clazzy1

Yes

Invested

$227.87

Value

$304.13

PnL

+$76.26

Record

62%

413-249 (662)

amis

Yes

Invested

$335.14

Value

$202.64

PnL

-$126.65

Record

88%

249-34 (283)

Coram_Deo

Yes

Invested

$187.08

Value

$114.78

PnL

-$72.3

Record

81%

229-54 (283)

XAE12Archangel<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.13

Value

$76.02

PnL

+$8.08

Record

66%

784-407 (1191)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Invested

$55.21

Value

$60.21

PnL

+$5

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

Richidd<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$38.21

PnL

-$11.79

Record

46%

47-56 (103)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Invested

$279.54

Value

$30.05

PnL

+$1.6

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

pako<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.3

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$1.63

Record

65%

250-132 (382)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 54%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 27 top traders (74%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

52 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 78% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 91% · 11

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 79% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.5%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$80.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

180.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.