Consensus PnL -$33K · win rate 49% (24–25, n=49) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-32.6K
Record
24W / 25L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 49 settled
Batting Avg
44.4%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1266
Source
PM monthly #998
Record (90 d)
19/34 · 56%
Trades
277
Markets
50
Volume
$289.4K
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Magic vs. Suns: O/U 222.5Under $4.5K · now 50¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Over)
Specialties
49 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 50¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Ackbar's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: NBA — held side won 48% of 46 at an average 50¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 31% of 16)
- 50–70¢: 65%(won 53% of 32)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.