Consensus PnL $269K · win rate 87% (63692–9738, n=73430) · PM monthly #571 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$269.3K
Record
63692W / 9738L
Win Rate
87.0%
of 73430 settled
Batting Avg
25.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#285
Source
PM monthly #571
Trades
439
Markets
138,956
Volume
$51.8M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11AM ETUp $35 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp $3 · now 100¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
Specialties
54,930 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 75¢- Crypto
+24 pts
side won 99% of 54930 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 77% of 884)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 97% of 4706)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 99% of 17753)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 99% of 31587)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.