Consensus PnL -$151K · win rate 100% (1–0, n=1) · PM monthly #106 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-150.9K
Record
1W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 1 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#57
Source
PM monthly #106
Trades
279
Markets
10
Volume
$564.7K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Yes $1.1K · now 2¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
3 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 58¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Cinibengales's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.