Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 98¢ · $21K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$21.4K

Combined PnL

$-8.7K

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 97.9¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$20.0K

Total Shares20,481

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares64,071

Combined PnL$-10.9K

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SK skibabiba	Noavg 88.8¢	$8.3K	$9.1K	+$844.36	87% 95-14 (109)
MEPP	Noavg 86.3¢	$6.0K	$6.8K	+$807.69	64% 633-352 (985)
DE denizz	Noavg 78.5¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$373.77	68% 597-284 (881)
TH thoodr	Noavg 93¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$55.94	96% 631-24 (655)
CI CinibengalesCTR	Yesavg 20.9¢	$10.7K	$1.1K	$-9.6K	— 2-8 (10)
MisTKy	Noavg 82¢	$499.29	$595.8	+$96.51	71% 568-236 (804)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 9¢	$846.65	$202.04	-$644.61	39% 196-304 (500)
debasedCTR	Yesavg 18.8¢	$645.27	$73.7	-$571.57	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
Optimus-CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$60	$4.3	-$55.7	61% 1200-768 (1968)
Mr-Krabs<$100	Noavg 86.2¢	$1.47	$1.6	+$0.13	78% 574-165 (739)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR	Yes	$106	$0.06	-$19.05	45% 3592-4351 (7943)

skibabiba

Invested

$8,270.79

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$844.36

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

MEPP

Invested

$6,006.96

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$807.69

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

denizz

Invested

$1,909.73

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$373.77

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

thoodr

Invested

$1,169.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$55.94

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

CinibengalesCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,683.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-9.6K

Record

—

2-8 (10)

MisTKy

Invested

$499.29

Value

$595.8

PnL

+$96.51

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$846.65

Value

$202.04

PnL

-$644.61

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

debasedCTR

Yes

Invested

$645.27

Value

$73.7

PnL

-$571.57

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

Optimus-CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$55.7

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

Mr-Krabs<$100

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.13

Record

78%

574-165 (739)

LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR

Yes

Invested

$106

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$19.05

Record

45%

3592-4351 (7943)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.