Consensus PnL $25K · win rate 78% (1106–316, n=1422) · PM monthly #257 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$25.0K
Record
1106W / 316L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 1422 settled
Batting Avg
52.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#483
Source
PM monthly #257
Trades
13,427
Markets
26,828
Volume
$32.0M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETUp $896 · now 100¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETDown $306 · now 100¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp $283 · now 100¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
Specialties
998 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 63¢- Crypto
+14 pts
side won 77% of 997 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 9% of 91)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 45% of 142)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 82% of 320)
- 70¢ and up: 45%(won 98% of 445)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.