Consensus PnL $30K · win rate 90% (165–18, n=183) · PM monthly #681 · holds 33 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$29.6K
Record
165W / 18L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 183 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#239
Source
PM monthly #681
Trades
164
Markets
261
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
33 in listed consensus markets · 33 of 33 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $118K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No $86K · now 93¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (77% of 26)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?No $62K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?No $50K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?No $48K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $47K · now 92¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?No $40K · now 85¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (72% of 18)
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?No $36K · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (95% of 20)
Specialties
214 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 95¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where DFV2's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 0% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 98% of 212)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.