Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
18 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 97¢ · $307K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
21
No 86%
$307.2K
$28.2K
87.5¢ → 96.9¢
+11% since entry · 18 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- $100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
18 of 21 top traders (86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
18 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | Noavg 83.8¢ | $58.6K | $127.8K | +$18.4K | 85% 605-108 (713) |
DF DFV2 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $44.8K | $47.7K | +$2.8K | 91% 198-19 (217) |
OE oegdatam | Noavg 91.3¢ | $41.1K | $43.6K | +$2.5K | 87% 149-22 (171) |
HA HAOI | Noavg 94.9¢ | $31.8K | $31.5K | +$627.68 | 100% 20-0 (20) |
 justdance | Noavg 89¢ | $16.7K | $17.9K | +$1.2K | 52% 2726-2552 (5278) |
 bitterfish | Noavg 95.1¢ | $10.0K | $11.9K | +$914.79 | 65% 335-183 (518) |
PH phdcapital | Noavg 63¢ | $3.1K | $4.8K | +$1.7K | 94% 259-17 (276) |
LA Lasting-Dessert | Noavg 62¢ | $3.1K | $4.8K | +$1.7K | 89% 563-67 (630) |
ST stocastico | Noavg 93.1¢ | $4.1K | $4.3K | +$166.53 | — 5-1 (6) |
 Talophex | Noavg 92.8¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$94.57 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 93¢ | $2.1K | $2.5K | +$126.42 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.4K | +$452.83 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
AV Avamax | Noavg 93.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$56.77 | 81% 421-101 (522) |
JA JanAMEX | Noavg 84¢ | $840 | $968.5 | +$128.5 | 88% 321-44 (365) |
 BabyIBeenWatchingYou | Noavg 78.7¢ | $426.91 | $525.36 | +$98.45 | 65% 966-523 (1489) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 79¢ | $2.3K | $437.66 | -$67.32 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 55.2¢ | $244.28 | $428.76 | +$184.48 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
PA pakoCTR | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $1.9K | $316.25 | $-1.6K | 65% 250-132 (382) |
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $1.3K | $312.49 | -$977.16 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
PU PutsOnPeace | Noavg 72.4¢ | $247.5 | $290.56 | +$43.05 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
 solwizzo-onXCTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $570 | $94.5 | -$475.5 | 67% 347-174 (521) |
Invested
$58,563.38
Value
$127.8K
PnL
+$18.4K
Record
85%
605-108 (713)
Invested
$44,820.71
Value
$47.7K
PnL
+$2.8K
Record
91%
198-19 (217)
Invested
$41,139.83
Value
$43.6K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
87%
149-22 (171)
Invested
$31,774.73
Value
$31.5K
PnL
+$627.68
Record
100%
20-0 (20)
justdanceInvested
$16,681.8
Value
$17.9K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
52%
2726-2552 (5278)
bitterfishInvested
$10,000
Value
$11.9K
PnL
+$914.79
Record
65%
335-183 (518)
Invested
$3,150
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
94%
259-17 (276)
Invested
$3,100
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
89%
563-67 (630)
Invested
$4,100
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$166.53
Record
—
5-1 (6)
TalophexInvested
$2,757.67
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$94.57
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
Invested
$2,095.07
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$126.42
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$1,990.78
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$452.83
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Invested
$1,685.68
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$56.77
Record
81%
421-101 (522)
Invested
$840
Value
$968.5
PnL
+$128.5
Record
88%
321-44 (365)
BabyIBeenWatchingYouInvested
$426.91
Value
$525.36
PnL
+$98.45
Record
65%
966-523 (1489)
Invested
$2,271.09
Value
$437.66
PnL
-$67.32
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
XieGuangKunInvested
$244.28
Value
$428.76
PnL
+$184.48
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
Invested
$1,885.2
Value
$316.25
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
65%
250-132 (382)
Invested
$1,289.65
Value
$312.49
PnL
-$977.16
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
Invested
$247.5
Value
$290.56
PnL
+$43.05
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
solwizzo-onXCTRInvested
$570
Value
$94.5
PnL
-$475.5
Record
67%
347-174 (521)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952
No — $127.8K
DFV2
No — $47.7K
oegdatam
No — $43.6K
HAOI
No — $31.5K
justdance
No — $17.9K
bitterfish
No — $11.9K
phdcapital
No — $4.8K
Lasting-Dessert
No — $4.8K
stocastico
No — $4.3K
Talophex
No — $2.9K