Consensus PnL $123K · win rate 60% (12339–8209, n=20548) · PM monthly #825 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$122.9K
Record
12339W / 8209L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 20548 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1145
Source
PM monthly #825
Trades
307
Markets
71,556
Volume
$9.7M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ETDown $44 · now 66¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (Up)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp $40 · now 100¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETDown $3 · now 0¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
14,698 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 57¢- Crypto
+26 pts
side won 83% of 14698 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +32%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 17% of 1446)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 80% of 2752)
- 50–70¢: 46%(won 93% of 6743)
- 70¢ and up: 26%(won 92% of 3757)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.