Consensus PnL -$391K · win rate 82% (64–14, n=78) · was PM monthly #327 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-390.7K
Record
64W / 14L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 78 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#389
Source
PM monthly #327
Trades
68
Markets
104
Volume
$5.3M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 9 on the consensus side (89%)- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?No $657K · now 88¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (50% of 16)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No $508K · now 88¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (83% of 23)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?No $334K · now 83¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (22% of 9)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?No $232K · now 85¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (72% of 18)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?No $215K · now 55¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (22% of 9)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?No $119K · now 56¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (40% of 16)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?No $99K · now 75¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (43% of 14)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $286 · now 90¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (65% of 37)
Specialties
77 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 88¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where JnStrtPrdctnMrkts's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 40% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 67% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 90%(won 94% of 69)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.