Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 83¢ · $408K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 22%
$407.8K
$16.4K
79.2¢ → 82.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
686h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JN JnStrtPrdctnMrkts | Noavg 77.8¢ | $328.3K | $334.0K | +$19.4K | 83% 63-13 (76) |
0X 0xDCCrane | Noavg 92¢ | $40.7K | $36.0K | $-4.2K | 80% 16-4 (20) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $26.8K | $28.1K | +$1.3K | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
GE getbippedCTR | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $5.2K | $5.2K | +$0.09 | 49% 208-213 (421) |
AL Albert 1953CTR | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$235.28 | 50% 1093-1094 (2187) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR | Yesavg 18.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$89.01 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
MA max1vedCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $368.64 | $523.07 | +$126.17 | — 8-1 (9) |
 NadmiCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $165 | $254.38 | +$89.38 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
LA LaarsYCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $120 | $185 | +$65 | 51% 3435-3355 (6790) |
Invested
$328,277.98
Value
$334.0K
PnL
+$19.4K
Record
83%
63-13 (76)
Invested
$40,680.45
Value
$36.0K
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
80%
16-4 (20)
Invested
$26,844.72
Value
$28.1K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
Invested
$5,191.05
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$0.09
Record
49%
208-213 (421)
Invested
$2,294.4
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$235.28
Record
50%
1093-1094 (2187)
Invested
$1,368.02
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$89.01
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
Invested
$368.64
Value
$523.07
PnL
+$126.17
Record
—
8-1 (9)
NadmiCTRInvested
$165
Value
$254.38
PnL
+$89.38
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$120
Value
$185
PnL
+$65
Record
51%
3435-3355 (6790)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.