Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 73% (11–4, n=15) · PM monthly #740 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$11.6K
Record
11W / 4L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 15 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#645
Source
PM monthly #740
Trades
12
Markets
19
Volume
$23.9K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $46K · now 36¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
12 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 28¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Michael1615's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 58%(won 43% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 50% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.