Consensus PnL -$18K · win rate 50% (20–20, n=40) · was PM monthly #941 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-18.0K
Record
20W / 20L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 40 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1781
Source
PM monthly #941
Trades
12
Markets
42
Volume
$976.6K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $80K · now 36¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
35 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 49¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where NeverGaveUp's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 50% of 10 at an average 61¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 29% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 14% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 47% of 15)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 100% of 6)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.