Consensus PnL $2.2M · win rate 73% (5474–2051, n=7525) · PM monthly #550 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.2M
Record
5474W / 2051L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 7525 settled
Batting Avg
61.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#615
Source
PM monthly #550
Trades
7,763
Markets
96,081
Volume
$33.7M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11AM ETUp $453 · now 100¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETUp $75 · now 100¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11AM ETDown $60 · now 0¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (Up)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETDown $20 · now 50¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
Specialties
26,966 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 45¢- Crypto
+29 pts
side won 74% of 26966 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +24%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 13% of 7421)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 89% of 4692)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 100% of 10489)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 100% of 4364)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.