Consensus PnL $1.1M · win rate 46% (704–836, n=1540) · was PM monthly #600 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$1.1M
Record
704W / 836L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 1540 settled
Batting Avg
62.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1945
Source
PM monthly #600
Trades
1,598
Markets
1,797
Volume
$32.2M
Specialties
1,379 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 43¢- Soccer
+9 pts
side won 50% of 309 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +10%
- College Basketball
+17 pts
side won 59% of 34 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +2%
- Tennis
+11 pts
side won 55% of 51 · avg entry 44¢
ROI −4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 27% of 297)
- 30–50¢: 47%(won 43% of 645)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 58% of 330)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 87% of 107)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.