Consensus PnL $28K · win rate 79% (15044–4095, n=19139) · was PM monthly #996 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$27.7K
Record
15044W / 4095L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 19139 settled
Batting Avg
44.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#455
Source
PM monthly #996
Trades
24,509
Markets
39,273
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 5 on the consensus side (80%)- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETUp $88 · now 100¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETDown $67 · now 100¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp $50 · now 50¢ · in at 78¢against the consensus (Down)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETUp $42 · now 100¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp $31 · now 100¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
Specialties
2,228 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 75¢- Crypto
+25 pts
side won 100% of 2228 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +22%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 14)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 100% of 103)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 100% of 554)
- 70¢ and up: 70%(won 100% of 1557)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.