Consensus PnL -$4.5K · win rate 46% (36–43, n=79) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-4.5K
Record
36W / 43L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 79 settled
Batting Avg
78.6%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1346
Source
PM monthly #998
Record (90 d)
49/63 · 78%
Trades
393
Markets
86
Volume
$105.4K
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Brisbane 3: Evan Zhu vs Thomas FancuttEvan Zhu $477 · now 0¢ · in at 74¢against the consensus (Thomas Fancutt)
Specialties
39 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 54¢- Tennis
+33 pts
side won 91% of 32 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +29%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 50% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 80% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 89% of 9)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 100% of 12)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.