Consensus PnL $18K · win rate 82% (1350–287, n=1637) · PM monthly #838 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$18.5K
Record
1350W / 287L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 1637 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#375
Source
PM monthly #838
Trades
1,044
Markets
2,579
Volume
$464.5K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETDown $2 · now 0¢ · in at 61¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
599 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 81¢- Crypto
+19 pts
side won 100% of 599 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +27%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 100% of 27)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 100% of 72)
- 70¢ and up: 82%(won 100% of 491)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.