Consensus PnL $173K · win rate 83% (71178–14895, n=86073) · PM monthly #797 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$173.2K
Record
71178W / 14895L
Win Rate
83.0%
of 86073 settled
Batting Avg
28.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#363
Source
PM monthly #797
Trades
2,203
Markets
192,864
Volume
$6.8M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp $35 · now 100¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETDown $21 · now 100¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETUp $10 · now 100¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
Specialties
15,863 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 63¢- Crypto
+37 pts
side won 99% of 15863 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +34%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 94% of 1231)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 99% of 1737)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 100% of 6588)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 100% of 6307)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.