Consensus PnL $57K · win rate 33% (5–10, n=15) · was PM monthly #956 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$57.2K
Record
5W / 10L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 15 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2178
Source
PM monthly #956
Trades
28
Markets
25
Volume
$40.5M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $191K · now 66¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (90% of 20)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $17K · now 13¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
Specialties
8 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 42¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where ballena's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 100% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.