Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

17 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 65¢ · $498K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$498.2K

Combined PnL

$331.4K

Smart Money Entry

21.4¢ → 64.5¢

+201% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 65%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 19 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$496.2K

Total Shares772,085

Combined PnL+$332.8K

No2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,437

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

1309h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Yesavg 3.1¢	$12.3K	$258.0K	+$245.7K	43% 561-738 (1299)
BA ballena	Yesavg 38.2¢	$114.1K	$191.3K	+$78.6K	— 6-7 (13)
LE leegunner	Yesavg 46.8¢	$14.9K	$20.3K	+$5.6K	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
SI Siddhartha1	Yesavg 59¢	$13.0K	$14.2K	+$1.2K	51% 59-57 (116)
JU justtryingtosurvive	Yesavg 59.9¢	$5.5K	$5.8K	+$423.7	— 4-0 (4)
LE legioncre	Yesavg 48¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$724.86	— 10-4 (14)
SA salahmhCTR	Noavg 62¢	$3.4K	$1.9K	$-1.4K	43% 323-428 (751)
YE yesmate	Yesavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$111.63	52% 362-331 (693)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 47¢	$522.29	$711.2	+$194.47	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
StarMaster	Yesavg 64¢	$618.26	$618.26	+$0	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Yesavg 59.1¢	$326.69	$339.97	+$13.28	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
probability	Yesavg 45.3¢	$170	$240	+$71.88	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
TimeTraveler	Yesavg 63¢	$187.51	$190.51	+$4.49	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 65¢	$253.87	$172.77	+$4.95	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 65.2¢	$14.95	$110.03	+$89.99	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704<$100	Yesavg 43.7¢	$70.71	$83.7	+$12.99	60% 1348-884 (2232)
TheKinginYellow<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$23.97	$42.61	+$18.98	68% 830-398 (1228)
RI Richidd<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$1	$1.79	+$0.79	46% 47-56 (103)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$1.02	$0.75	-$0.26	52% 5046-4713 (9759)

BreakTheBank

Yes

Invested

$12,347.41

Value

$258.0K

PnL

+$245.7K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

ballena

Yes

Invested

$114,140.82

Value

$191.3K

PnL

+$78.6K

Record

—

6-7 (13)

leegunner

Yes

Invested

$14,857.28

Value

$20.3K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

Siddhartha1

Yes

Invested

$12,979.97

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

59-57 (116)

justtryingtosurvive

Yes

Invested

$5,469.29

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$423.7

Record

—

4-0 (4)

legioncre

Yes

Invested

$2,108.69

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$724.86

Record

—

10-4 (14)

salahmhCTR

Invested

$3,370.34

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

43%

323-428 (751)

yesmate

Yes

Invested

$1,197.33

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$111.63

Record

52%

362-331 (693)

sbimbg

Yes

Invested

$522.29

Value

$711.2

PnL

+$194.47

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$618.26

Value

$618.26

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Yes

Invested

$326.69

Value

$339.97

PnL

+$13.28

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

probability

Yes

Invested

$170

Value

$240

PnL

+$71.88

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

TimeTraveler

Yes

Invested

$187.51

Value

$190.51

PnL

+$4.49

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$253.87

Value

$172.77

PnL

+$4.95

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

ghorrock

Yes

Invested

$14.95

Value

$110.03

PnL

+$89.99

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.71

Value

$83.7

PnL

+$12.99

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

TheKinginYellow<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.97

Value

$42.61

PnL

+$18.98

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

Richidd<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0.79

Record

46%

47-56 (103)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.26

Record

52%

5046-4713 (9759)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 65%

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 19 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

1309h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.