Consensus PnL $75K · win rate 75% (3–1, n=4) · PM monthly #301 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$75.1K
Record
3W / 1L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 4 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#597
Source
PM monthly #301
Trades
28
Markets
5
Volume
$133.1K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Yes $90K · now 74¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (58% of 26)
Specialties
3 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 71¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where bigbeliever's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.